关税传导仍慢，降息预期增强

Inflation Data - In July, the U.S. CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, unchanged from June and below the market expectation of 2.8%[6] - Core CPI rose to 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in June, slightly exceeding market expectations of 3.0%[6] - Month-on-month CPI growth fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI increased to 0.3%[6] Core Goods and Services - Core goods inflation was supported by a rebound in transportation goods, particularly used cars, which saw a month-on-month increase of 1.2 percentage points to 0.5%[10] - Tariff-sensitive goods experienced a slowdown in growth, with furniture, clothing, and leisure goods showing reduced month-on-month growth rates compared to June[11] - Core services inflation was driven by strong performance in medical services and transportation, with the airline ticket component rising by 4.1 percentage points to 4.0%[15] Federal Reserve Outlook - The July CPI data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with a 94% probability of a 25 basis point cut[22] - The market anticipates three rate cuts in 2025, with expected cuts in September, October, and December[22] - Concerns remain regarding the persistence of core service inflation, which may complicate the Fed's decision-making process regarding consecutive rate cuts[24] Risks and Considerations - The transmission of tariffs to core goods inflation remains slow, influenced by factors such as consumer demand and corporate pricing strategies[23] - The labor market's stability and upcoming employment data will be critical in shaping future Fed policy decisions[24] - Risks include potential concerns over the Fed's independence and the possibility of a stronger-than-expected labor market[25]