原油：等待美俄会谈落地，油价低位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - frequency data shows insufficient support during the peak season, and US oil demand may peak at the end of August. On the supply side, the lagged OPEC+ production increase is gradually being released, and the connection between production and the off - peak demand season may still impact the market. In the short term, after the US - Russia talks are concluded, there is a lack of positive drivers for oil prices, so one can try short - selling with a light position. In the medium to long term, continue to pay attention to opportunities for short - selling at high prices during the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [6]. Breakdown by Directory 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - From August 11th to 15th, international oil prices fluctuated at low levels, waiting for the results of the US - Russia talks. As of August 15th, WTI settled at $63.31/barrel (-2.17%), Brent at $66.21/barrel (-1.56%), and INE SC at 500.62 yuan/barrel (-3.45%) [10]. - The report also provides detailed weekly price trends, cross - market arbitrage, cross - period arbitrage, cross - commodity arbitrage, and financial attribute data of various crude oils [12]. 1.2 Financial Aspects - The US July CPI was released, with inflation generally in line with expectations. The market unanimously expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, and the US stock market continued to rise. As of August 15th, the S&P 500 index reached 6449.8, continuing its rebound since mid - April, and the VIX volatility was 15.09, still at a relatively low level [14]. 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and US Dollar Index - The crude oil ETF volatility declined this week, and the US dollar index also declined. As of August 15th, the crude oil volatility ETF was 37.22, and the US dollar index was 97.8467. Crude oil volatility rebounded due to the uncertainty of the US - Russia situation, while the US dollar index continued to decline due to reignited market expectations of interest rate cuts [16]. 1.4 Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions - As of August 12th, the net long positions of WTI managed funds decreased by 32,500 contracts to 48,900 contracts compared to the previous month, a weekly decline of 39.9%. Speculative net long positions increased by 7,400 contracts to 67,900 contracts, a weekly increase of 12.2%. As the peak season gradually ends and the risk of sanctions eases, the market's bullish bets on oil price increases have further weakened [19]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 OPEC Production - In July, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 262,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day compared to the previous month. Most countries have started to increase production, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE leading the pace. However, the production of eight OPEC+ countries in June was still 84,000 barrels per day lower than planned, mainly due to some countries implementing their compensation production - cut plans [25]. - According to the IEA's statistical caliber, the production of nine OPEC member countries in July was 22.88 million barrels per day, a decrease of 320,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month. The overall over - production of the nine countries decreased compared to the previous month [29]. - In July, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 170,000 barrels per day to 9.526 million barrels per day, while Iran's production decreased by 12,000 barrels per day to 3.245 million barrels per day. Geopolitical factors have begun to affect Iran's oil production [31]. 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to OPEC's statistical caliber, Russia's crude oil production in July was 9.12 million barrels per day, an increase of 95,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month. According to the IEA's statistical caliber, it was 9.20 million barrels per day, an increase of 10,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month. Production is gradually recovering under the production - increase plan but is still at a very low level [37]. 2.3 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of August 15th, the number of active US oil - drilling rigs was 412, an increase of 1 from the previous week and a decrease of 71 compared to the same period last year. The production in the Permian Basin may face limited growth [41]. - As of the week of August 8th, US crude oil production decreased marginally to 13.327 million barrels per day, an increase of 43,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week and a 0.2% increase year - on - year. The impact of low oil prices in the first half of the year on production is starting to show, but due to improved drilling efficiency, production will not decline sharply [43]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 US Oil Product Demand - According to EIA data as of the week of August 8th, the single - week and four - week average demand for refined oil products in the US both rebounded and are moving towards the second peak of the peak - season demand. The four - week average total demand for oil products last week was 21.159 million barrels per day, a 2.89% increase year - on - year [47]. - As of August 8th, the single - week demand for refined oil products in the US decreased, but the four - week average increased. The four - week average demand for gasoline increased by 128,000 barrels per day to 9.04 million barrels per day, a 1.52% year - on - year decrease; the average demand for distillates increased by 69,000 barrels per day to 3.592 million barrels per day, a 1.62% year - on - year decrease; the average consumption of kerosene increased by 50,000 barrels per day to 1.827 million barrels per day, a 4.22% year - on - year increase [52]. - As of August 15th, the gasoline crack spread in the US was $24.25/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $30.65/barrel. The crack spreads rebounded this week as the dominant factor shifted to the crude oil cost side, and refined oil products are still in the peak season [55]. 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of August 15th, the ICE diesel crack spread was $23.71/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $29.14/barrel. European diesel performed better than heating oil due to low inventory and peak - season inventory replenishment demand. However, the crack spreads have declined in the past two weeks as diesel inventories have increased [59]. 3.3 Chinese Oil Products and Refinery Situation - In July, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.998 million tons year - on - year to 63.06 million tons (+6.77%); imports increased by 4.864 million tons year - on - year to 47.204 million tons (+11.49%). The decline in imports in July was a seasonal fluctuation [62]. 3.4 Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth - Three major international institutions have different views on this year's demand growth rate. OPEC maintains last month's forecast, the IEA continues to lower its demand forecast, and the EIA raises its forecast for global oil demand growth. In July, the EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 890,000 barrels per day (increase), 680,000 barrels per day (decrease), and 1.3 million barrels per day (unchanged) respectively [66]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventories have risen back within the five - year range, and the previous support from low inventories for oil prices has started to weaken. As of August 8th, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 303,600 barrels from the previous week to 426.7 million barrels, a 0.92% year - on - year decrease; SPR inventories increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 45,000 barrels to 23.051 million barrels [67]. - As of the week of August 8th, the US crude oil net imports increased by 699,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 3.343 million barrels per day. US refinery processing volume increased by 56,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 17.18 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate remained at 96.4% [70]. - The WTI monthly spread generally maintains a backwardation structure. As of August 15th, the WTI M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.82/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.8/barrel. With the peak of US refined oil demand approaching and OPEC's accelerated production increase in the near term, the monthly spread may continue to decline [73]. 4.2 Brent Monthly Spread - The Brent monthly spread still maintains a backwardation structure. As of August 15th, the Brent M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.55/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.25/barrel. It shows a positive - carry pattern but has weakened this week [76]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the August EIA forecast, this year's global oil supply is 105.36 million barrels per day, and demand is 103.72 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.64 million barrels, which is an increase compared to last month. Despite the EIA's upward adjustment of the demand forecast, the supply pressure is expected to be greater this year due to OPEC+ ending the voluntary production - cut plan ahead of schedule [79]. 5.2 Term Structure - The US fundamental data this week shows that the single - week peak - season demand has started to decline, and the term structure has continued to flatten compared to last week. Brent can support a stronger positive - carry structure due to the previous strong diesel demand and good crack profits. Currently, international oil products can maintain a positive - carry term structure, but it may change if OPEC continues to accelerate production increase in the near term as the peak - season demand weakens [82].