瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach, focusing on the support at the 265,000 yuan level. The fundamentals show that although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining permit approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. On the refining side, production in July increased due to multiple factors, but raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the traditional off - season, with most enterprises' production and procurement only meeting rigid needs. Recently, tin prices have declined slightly, increasing the purchasing sentiment of downstream and terminal enterprises, but overall market transactions are still poor. Spot premiums have slightly decreased, and domestic inventories have slightly increased. Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 267,020 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the closing price of the September - October contract for Shanghai tin is - 270 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 33,610 US dollars/ton, up 175 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 22,096 lots, up 35 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 1,027 lots, down 31 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,655 tons, down 175 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,792 tons, down 13 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 165 tons, down 125 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts are 7,587 tons, up 161 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 266,800 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 267,060 yuan/ton, up 1,050 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 220 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 63 US dollars/ton, up 98 US dollars. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fees is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fees is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,370 yuan/ton, up 770 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - In China, in July, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer retail slowed to 3.7%, and the total retail sales of automobiles turned negative year - on - year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, with the automobile and electronics industries leading, while the output of crude steel and raw coal declined. From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6%, and private investment declined. From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year - on - year. In July, in China's 70 large and medium - sized cities, the prices of second - hand houses in first - tier cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in housing prices in all tiers narrowed. In the United States, retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in August unexpectedly declined, with long - and short - term inflation expectations rising [3]