瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure in the market still exists as the slaughter resumes to rise after a brief price - holding by the breeding side, and the scale of secondary fattening is limited. However, the current price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs has widened, providing conditions for later hoarding. On the demand side, the supply of pigs is sufficient, and the demand in some areas has improved. The slaughterhouse's operating rate has moderately increased. It is expected that the demand will significantly improve with the start of school in late August and the subsequent Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking. Overall, the slaughter pressure in August is high, and the spot price is weakly adjusted. The long - term supply pressure expectation is decreasing marginally, and the demand improvement expectation due to the upcoming start of school is expected to limit the decline space of the hog futures price. It is recommended to wait and see for now, focusing on the slaughter and secondary fattening situation [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main hog futures contract is 13,820 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 71,193 lots, up 6,351 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 430 lots, unchanged; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders is - 17,718 lots, up 265 lots. The hog 2511 contract closed down 0.65% on Monday [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The hog price in Henan Zhumadian is 13,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 13,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong Yunfu is 14,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main hog basis is - 220 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly hog inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows is 4,0430,000 heads, up 10,000 heads. The CPI's year - on - year change is 0%, down 0.1 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,070 yuan/ton, unchanged; the corn spot price is 2,393.92 yuan/ton, down 0.2 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's hog feed cost index is 917.93, down 6.14. The monthly feed output is 29,377,000 tons, up 1,756,000 tons. The weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,638 yuan/head, unchanged. The weekly breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 157.05 yuan/head, down 22.91 yuan; the weekly breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised hogs is 28.85 yuan/head, down 16.28 yuan. The monthly pork import volume is 90,000 tons, unchanged. The weekly average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.1 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,0060,000 heads, down 2100,000 heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales is 470.76 billion yuan, up 1.294 billion yuan [2] 3.5 Industry News - China's pork import volume in July was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; from January to July, the pork import volume was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. On August 18, 2025, the daily hog slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 274,282 heads, a 1.69% increase from the previous period [2]