大类资产周报：资产配置与金融工程增长维度回正，风险资产持续表现-20250818

Market Overview - Macro growth factors have stabilized, with the Jianxin Gaojin growth factor turning positive, indicating a recovery in macro growth expectations[4] - The ChiNext Index surged by 8.58%, leading global markets, driven by a renewed preference for technology growth sectors[9] - Market risk appetite has improved, with trading volume increasing by 24.1% week-on-week, reflecting heightened investor participation[57] Inflation and Economic Indicators - CPI year-on-year growth is at 0.1%, while PPI remains low, indicating persistent deflationary pressures[4] - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[39] Asset Class Recommendations - Fixed Income: Favor high-grade credit bonds and adjust duration flexibly, focusing on bank and insurance sector movements[5] - Equities: In the U.S., focus on technology sectors with long-term AI investment opportunities, as economic data shows resilience[5] - Commodities: Structural differentiation is evident, with strong performance in soybean meal (+5.59%) due to supply concerns[4] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] Valuation and Earnings Expectations - A-share valuations have increased, with the CSI 800's P/E ratio at the 13th percentile of the past three years, indicating rising valuation pressure[64] - Analysts project a 9.9% year-on-year earnings growth for the CSI 800, with revenue growth expectations at 6.0%[65]