Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-18 09:45Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is facing a complex situation. In the short - term, due to the maintenance of some factories, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. In the long - term, new PVC production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the considerable chlor - alkali profit provides room for increasing the PVC device load, so the supply pressure in the future market is still not optimistic. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement, and the weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The anti - dumping policy in India and the rainy season also hinder short - term overseas demand. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4970 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures (V2601) is 5054 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the trading volume is 819,976 lots, up 315,680 lots; the open interest is 869,290 lots, up 83,334 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 63,473 lots, down 4,750 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5075 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4869.23 yuan/ton, down 10.38 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5005 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4906.88 yuan/ton, down 25.62 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 254 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2548.33 yuan/ton, down 41.67 yuan, and in Northwest China is 2320 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton (unchanged). The intermediate price of VCM CFR in the Far East is 521 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Southeast Asia is 548 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The intermediate price of EDC CFR in the Far East is 181 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars, and in Southeast Asia is 189 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 80.33%, up 0.87 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 79.96%, up 1.31 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.23 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 49.28 tons, up 1.2 tons. The inventory in the East China region is 43.52 tons, up 1.15 tons, and in the South China region is 5.76 tons, up 0.05 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 244.755 billion yuan, up 53.2069 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 25.96%, down 3.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.03%, up 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 28.81%, up 5.3 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 28.81%, up 5.3 percentage points [3]. Industry News - India may adjust the anti - dumping tax rate on imported PVC, with a much higher increase for the Chinese mainland than other countries and regions. The market price of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou on August 18 was 0 - 50 yuan/ton lower than last Friday, at 4780 - 4880 yuan/ton. The PVC main contract has changed to V2601, which closed down 1.17% at 5054 yuan/ton. From August 9 to 15, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 80.33%, up 0.87% from the previous period. As of August 14, the PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% to 811,400 tons compared with the previous period, and decreased by 12.72% year - on - year [3]. Viewpoint Summary - In the short - term, due to the maintenance of some factories, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. In the long - term, new PVC production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the considerable chlor - alkali profit provides room for increasing the PVC device load, so the supply pressure in the future market is still not optimistic. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement, and the weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The anti - dumping policy in India and the rainy season also hinder short - term overseas demand. The domestic calcium - carbide price is under pressure, and the US dollar price of ethylene may maintain a slight upward trend. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4970 [3][4].