Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-18 09:44Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly compared to before. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, it is expected that the steel mill output will increase in August [2]. - As the traditional consumption off - season for downstream industries is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously backlogged orders have been released. At the same time, holders of goods have a high willingness to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable [2]. - Technically, the position has decreased and the price has corrected, the bullish sentiment has weakened. Attention should be paid to the support of MA20. It is recommended to wait and see for now, or go long lightly on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for stainless steel is 13,010 yuan/ton, with a 0 change. The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts for stainless steel is - 75 yuan/ton, with a 0 change [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for stainless steel is - 14,994 lots, a decrease of 1,580 lots. The position of the main contract for stainless steel is 134,400 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity for stainless steel is 103,093 tons, a decrease of 184 tons [2]. 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 285 yuan/ton, with a 0 change [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 121,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 5 yuan/nickel point [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed down to 3.7%, and the year - on - year total retail sales of automobiles turned negative. The year - on - year increase in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in July was 5.7%, with automobiles and electronics leading the way, while the output of crude steel and raw coal declined. From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6%, and private investment declined. From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year - on - year. In July, for the 70 large and medium - sized cities in China, the prices of second - hand houses in first - tier cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in prices in all tiers of cities narrowed [2]. - In the US, retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month in July, which was the second consecutive month of significant growth in retail sales, with a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The June data was revised up significantly to 0.9% [2]. Key Points to Watch No news on this day [2]