Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-18 09:44Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The domestic old - crop cotton supply is tight, which supports price fluctuations, but weak downstream demand restricts the upside. The cotton market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of Zhengzhou cotton's main contract was 14,125 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and that of the main cotton yarn contract was 20,155 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan). The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 63,829 lots (down 3,972 lots), and for cotton yarn futures it was - 421 lots (up 34 lots). The main - contract positions of cotton and cotton yarn were 486,067 lots (up 8,447 lots) and 21,948 lots (up 612 lots) respectively. The cotton and cotton - yarn warehouse receipt numbers were 7,762 (down 67) and 69 (down 5) respectively [2]. - Spot Market: The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,234 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan), and the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,720 yuan/ton (unchanged). The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,558 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan), and the arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 22,128 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan) [2]. - Upstream Situation: The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares (up 48.3 thousand hectares), and the national cotton output was 616 tons (up 54 tons) [2]. - Industry Situation: The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,486 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan). The national industrial inventory of cotton was 85 tons (up 2.4 tons), and the national commercial inventory of cotton was 282.98 tons (down 62.89 tons). The import volume of cotton was 5 tons (up 2 tons), and that of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons (up 10,000 tons). The profit of imported cotton was 890 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) [2]. - Downstream Situation: The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days (up 1.52 days), and the grey - cloth inventory days were 35.46 days (up 2.57 days). The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters (up 0.109 billion meters), and the monthly yarn output was 206.5 tons (up 11.4 tons). The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1,526,671,400 US dollars (up 168,897,700 US dollars), and that of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1,204,820,700 US dollars (down 58,356,600 US dollars) [2]. - Option Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 10.9% (down 0.19%), and that of at - the - money put options was 10.88% (down 0.18%). The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.2% (up 0.19%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 5.64% (up 0.04%) [2]. 2. Industry News - China's cotton imports in July were 5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, the cumulative import of cotton was 52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2% [2]. - As of August 15, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 1.8561 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,600 tons (a decrease of 7.50%). In Xinjiang, the commercial inventory of cotton was 1.1319 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,000 tons (a decrease of 11.70%); in inland areas, it was 418,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,900 tons (an increase of 3.69%) [2]. - The December ICE cotton contract closed down 0.16% last Friday. The January 2026 cotton contract closed up 0.11% on Monday, and the November 2025 cotton - yarn contract closed down 0.22%. The US Department of Agriculture's export sales report showed that for the week ending August 7, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current market year was 242,000 bales, and that for the next year was 1,100 bales [2].