Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-18 09:42Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2509 rose 1.10% to close at 2,567 yuan/ton Supply-side, last week, there were both shutdown and restart of domestic plants, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.0% to 84.1% Demand-side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.09% to 85.64%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.07% to 86.04%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 2.19% to 61.46% In terms of inventory, last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.18% to 437,800 tons This week, the number of maintenance plants in Shandong and other places has further increased, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to further decline Currently, the alumina industry has considerable profits, and there is no planned production cut, and the plants are expected to operate stably The peak season for non-aluminum downstream industries is approaching, but the current rigid demand is still weak, waiting for signals of demand improvement The liquid caustic soda inventory pressure in Shandong is not large Technically, SH2509 should pay attention to the pressure around 2,650, and SH2601 should pay attention to the pressure around 2,700 [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2,567 yuan/ton, the main contract position was 42,812 lots (down 6,806 lots), the net position of the top 20 futures was -13,632 lots (down 1,133 lots), and the main contract trading volume was 101,040 lots (down 45,977 lots) The closing price of the January contract was 2,635 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), and the closing price of the May contract was 2,723 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan) [3] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 890 yuan/ton The 32% caustic soda equivalent-to-100% price in Shandong was 2,562.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 58 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan) [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest China was 210 yuan/ton, and the price of thermal coal was 643 yuan/ton [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -49.5 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was -100 yuan/ton [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina was 3,215 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) [3] Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.0% As of August 14th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 437,800 tons (wet tons), a week-on-week decrease of 5.18% and a year-on-year increase of 18.61% [3]