瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of polyethylene have marginally improved, providing some support to the futures price, but the driving force for a price increase is still insufficient. Technically, the daily K - line of L2601 should pay attention to the support around 7250 and the resistance around 7400 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for polyethylene is 7334 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan. The trading volume is 210,479 lots, and the open interest is 341,910 lots. The 9 - 1 spread is - 42, an increase of 3. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 23,774 lots, a decrease of 357 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7304.78 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.74 yuan; in East China, it is 7392.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The basis is - 46.22, a decrease of 19.74 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 61.58 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.31 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 572.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.5 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 821 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars; in Northeast Asia, it is 826 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 84.2%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film is 49.07%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points; for pipes, it is 30%, an increase of 1 percentage point; for agricultural film, it is 13.82%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 10.41%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.68%, a decrease of 1.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.25%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points; for at - the - money call options, it is 18.24%, an increase of 0.74 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, China's polyethylene production was 661,100 tons, a 0.14% increase from the previous period, and the production capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.4% from the previous period. As of August 13th, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises was 444,500 tons, a 13.76% decrease; as of August 8th, the social inventory was 568,700 tons, a 1.22% decrease [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The total inventory pressure is not large. With the increasing impact of shutdowns in devices such as Fushun Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical, and Lianyungang Petrochemical, this week's PE production and production capacity utilization rate are expected to decline. The demand for PE is seasonally increasing. The situation of oversupply in the crude oil market persists, and international oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [2].