瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report's Core View - The domestic agricultural demand for urea is in a seasonal off - season with only sporadic local demand. The compound fertilizer industrial demand makes appropriate low - price purchases during the autumn fertilizer production stage, but the increase in the compound fertilizer enterprise's operating rate is slow, resulting in limited rigid demand for urea. The domestic demand progresses slowly, and the downstream factories mainly make small - quantity low - price purchases. Although some export - oriented enterprises can balance production and sales, some enterprises are affected by the weakening domestic demand. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continues to increase, and it is expected to keep rising in the short term. The short - term trading range for the UR2601 contract is recommended to be between 1740 - 1800 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1754 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17; the 9 - 1 spread is - 23 yuan/ton, down 7 week - on - week. The main contract's open interest is 183,795 lots, an increase of 1,188; the net position of the top 20 is - 24,127, a decrease of 2,210. The exchange warehouse receipts are 3,573, unchanged week - on - week [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1730 yuan/ton, down 10; in Henan it is 1720 yuan/ton, down 20; in Jiangsu it is 1710 yuan/ton, down 20; in Shandong it is 1730 yuan/ton, up 30; in Anhui it is 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in the Baltic is 450 US dollars/ton, down 5; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 450 US dollars/ton, down 10. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 24 yuan/ton, up 13 [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 46.4 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons week - on - week; the enterprise inventory is 95.74 tons, an increase of 6.98 tons week - on - week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 1.24%; the daily urea output is 192,700 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons. The urea export volume is 57 tons, an increase of 50 tons; the monthly urea output is 6,052,080 tons, an increase of 20,740 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 43.48%, up 1.98%; the melamine operating rate is 49.82%, down 11.28%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 116 yuan/ton, up 18; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 78 yuan/ton, up 266. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 422.12 tons, an increase of 5.3 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,800 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 13, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 95.74 tons, an increase of 6.98 tons week - on - week, a 7.86% increase. As of August 14, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 46.4 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons week - on - week, a 3.93% decrease. As of August 14, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 134.86 tons, an increase of 2.01 tons week - on - week, a 1.51% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 83.22%, up 1.24%, with the trend turning from decline to increase. Recently, some plants have restarted, and the domestic daily urea output has increased slightly. This week, 1 - 2 enterprises are planned to stop production, and 3 - 5 stopped enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of output increase is high [3]