Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-18 09:41Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase due to the potential复产 of some bases of three leading domestic enterprises and the release of new production capacity in the second half of the year. If the resumption of production speeds up or new capacity is released ahead of schedule next week, the market supply of polysilicon will increase [2]. - The short - term demand for polysilicon is weak. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85%. Although the global photovoltaic installation in 2025 is expected to be about 580GW and the domestic demand is about 130000 tons, the short - term weak demand restricts the price increase of polysilicon [2]. - The downstream photovoltaic enterprise's start - up rate is difficult to improve. With the increase in supply and the weakening of demand, the polysilicon market is expected to continue to adjust next week. The price is supported by cost and policy, but the upside space is limited by downstream acceptance, and it is likely to show a volatile trend [2]. - The demand for industrial silicon is steadily declining, but the supply is also decreasing, and the overall situation remains volatile [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 52280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 460 yuan compared with the previous period; the main contract position is 135517 lots, a decrease of 3206 lots [2]. - The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2290 yuan, an increase of 155 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 43675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 47000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the basis of polysilicon is - 5740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2310 yuan [2]. - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52919.65 tons, a decrease of 12197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons [2]. - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305200 tons, an increase of 5500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1113 tons, an increase of 320 tons [2]. - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 67386000 kilowatts, a decrease of 3183000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W [2]. - The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 889758600 units, a decrease of 144241200 units; the monthly import volume is 110959000 units, a decrease of 10025900 units; the monthly average import price is 0.31 US dollars/unit, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars [2]. - The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 27.86, unchanged [2]. Industry News - The relevant unit has decided to abolish the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Guidelines for the Consultation Mechanism for the Identification of Compliant Production Capacity of Industrial Silicon in the Autonomous Region" after the expiration of the publicity period without receiving any objections [2]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable rise in prices as an important consideration for monetary policy [2].