瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The multi - empty game in the precious metals market has intensified. If subsequent negotiations achieve substantial progress, it may further relieve the callback pressure on gold prices. If the results are below expectations, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying [2]. - The Fed's independence is continuously hindered. Considering Trump's fiscal stimulus plan and the risk of inflation rebounding, the feasibility of a rate cut exceeding 25bps is low. The subsequent PCE data may become the indicator for the Fed's rate cut [2]. - In the long - term, factors such as the opening of the Fed's rate - cut window, the long - standing US twin deficits, and the decline in the US dollar's credit still provide strong support for gold prices. In the short - term, gold prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for gold in the short - term and try to go long on silver at low prices with a light position. Pay attention to risk control. The focus range for the SHFE AU2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE AG2510 contract is 9100 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE gold main contract is 777.66 yuan/gram, up 1.86 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE silver main contract is 9258 yuan/kilogram, up 54 yuan [2]. - The position of the gold main contract is 194,004 lots, down 3,651 lots; the position of the silver main contract is 350,742 lots, up 4,614 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the gold main contract is 164,475 lots, up 2,060 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the silver main contract is 116,454 lots, down 313 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 36,345 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,138,426 kilograms, down 3,129 kilograms [2]. - The SMM gold spot price is 773.4 yuan/gram, up 1 yuan; the SMM silver spot price is 9213 yuan/kilogram, up 44 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SHFE gold main contract is - 4.26 yuan/gram, down 0.86 yuan; the basis of the SHFE silver main contract is - 45 yuan/kilogram, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 965.36 tons, up 4.01 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 15,071.31 tons, unchanged [2]. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 229,485 contracts, down 7,565 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 44,268 contracts, down 6,390 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.17%, up 0.29%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11%, up 0.1% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 16.03%, down 0.91%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 16.03%, down 0.91% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump plans to announce additional tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors in the next two weeks, with semiconductor tariffs possibly far exceeding the previously mentioned 100% [2]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is hesitant about rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and tariff uncertainties. Milan, nominated by Trump as a Fed governor, said inflation is "under control" [2]. - Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on August 18. If successful, a tri - party meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will be arranged [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 15.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 84.6%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 42.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 51.5% [2]. 3.6 Market Situation - The main contracts of gold and silver in the Shanghai market fluctuated upward during the session. The prices of gold and silver in London maintained a narrow - range oscillation, slightly recovering from last Friday's decline [2]. - The results of the US - Russia weekend negotiations were generally optimistic. Although no substantial results were achieved, the positive statements after the meeting provided room for further negotiations and potential cease - fire. The market's risk - aversion sentiment quickly cooled, causing a significant drop in gold prices. Silver prices remained relatively strong due to their industrial attributes [2]. - The stronger - than - expected US wholesale and retail data further reduced the probability of a rate cut after the PPI data. If Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23 is "balanced", the downward space for interest rates may be limited [2]. - The interest rate futures show that the rate - cut expectation has dropped from the previous high of 98% to the current 84.6%. However, the market still expects the Fed to start the rate - cut window in September, which provides support for gold prices [2].