苹果产业日报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The old - crop inventory is low with little sales pressure. The transactions are priced according to quality, and the overall shipment speed has slowed down. The supply of paper - bag Gala apples in the western producing areas is increasing, with high - quality fruits commanding high prices. Overall, the low spot inventory strongly supports prices, but the increasing listing volume of Gala apples may restrain the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the coloring and listing of early - maturing apples [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 42 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract is 82,432 hands, a decrease of 6,998 hands. The number of warehouse receipts is 0. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 4,008 hands, an increase of 841 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remain unchanged. The national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons, and the weekly apple wholesale price is 9.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.48 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 46.01 million tons, a decrease of 7.38 million tons. The capacity ratio of Shandong apple cold - storage is 8%, a decrease of 1%. The capacity ratio of Shaanxi apple cold - storage is 2%, a decrease of 0.47%. The monthly apple export volume is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,955,488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245,562.17 million US dollars, and the monthly apple export value is 4,330.8 million US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.11 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.58 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg. The morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets has decreased [2] 3.5 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 18.59%, a decrease of 0.34% [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 18, 2025, the supply of Gala apples in the western producing areas increased, with high - quality fruits commanding high prices. The trading of stored Fuji apples in Shandong was dull, with farmers and cold - storage operators offering discounts. The early - maturing Luli and Jinduhong apples were priced according to quality, and the shipment was okay. The Apple 2510 contract rose 0.44% on Monday [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The estimated national apple production for the new season is 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 season. As of August 13, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 46.01 million tons, a decrease of 7.58 million tons from the previous week. The shipment speed slowed slightly. The capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased, with Shandong's de - stocking improving slightly, Shaanxi's shipment slowing, and Gansu's shipment almost finished [2]