宏观经济点评报告：杰克逊霍尔会议前瞻，模糊论调至上

Economic Environment - The U.S. economy is facing a more severe macro environment in 2025 compared to the previous year, necessitating interest rate cuts to counteract a noticeable slowdown in growth[3] - The Federal Reserve has already lowered the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points over the past year, but further cuts may be required to stimulate the economy[3] Interest Rate Outlook - Fed Chair Powell is unlikely to provide clear guidance on interest rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting, with the market currently pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September[3] - Any guidance provided may lean towards hawkish expectations, suggesting fewer cuts and a higher terminal rate for the year[3] Employment Data - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for August will be crucial in determining the September rate cut decision, focusing on the revisions in employment numbers rather than just new job additions[3] - A stable unemployment rate and upward revisions in previous employment figures could lead Powell to reject the September rate cut[3] Market Reactions - The market should not be surprised by ambiguous or hawkish statements from the Fed, as inconsistent data may lead to a more cautious approach rather than reinforcing a unilateral expectation[3] - The report indicates that the labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a decline in labor force participation and employment rates[34] Global Economic Factors - Increased uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies may lead to greater volatility in financial markets and faster capital flight from the dollar[4] - Global economic conditions are expected to be impacted by clearer tariffs, potentially leading to synchronized monetary easing that exceeds expectations[4]