瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 18, the SM2601 contract of manganese - silicon reported 6120, up 0.36%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was 5900. Considering the macro - level, position limits affected market sentiment. Fundamentally, production has been on the rise since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level, and raw material costs and downstream iron - water production are at a high level. Profits vary by region, and the August steel mill procurement tender price increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 18, the SF2511 contract of silicon - iron reported 5880, down 0.37%. The spot price of Ningxia silicon - iron was 5610. The US Trump administration expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. In terms of supply and demand, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks after profit improvement, and inventory has also increased. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has risen, and the overall steel demand expectation is still weak. The August steel mill procurement tender price increased by 100 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 6026 yuan/ton, unchanged; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5880 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 590,689 hands, down 1028 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 446,020 hands, up 12,269 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese - silicon was - 81,119 hands, up 5075 hands; the net position of the top 20 in silicon - iron was - 24,060 hands, up 5047 hands [2]. - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 94 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was 156 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The SM仓单 was 73,660 sheets, down 1137 sheets; the SF仓单 was 20,716 sheets, down 200 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Inner Mongolia was 5900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Guizhou was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Qinghai was 5520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Yunnan was 5920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Ningxia was 5610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5870 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton; the daily basis of the SF主力合约 was - 270 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton [2]. - The daily basis of the SM主力合约 was - 126 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore (Mn38 block) at Tianjin Port was 34 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98%) in the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material) in Shenmu was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The weekly port inventory of manganese ore was 446.60 million tons, down 2.30 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of manganese - silicon enterprises was 45.75%, up 2.32 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of silicon - iron enterprises was 36.18%, up 1.86 percentage points [2]. - The weekly supply of manganese - silicon was 207,060 tons, up 11,235 tons; the weekly supply of silicon - iron was 112,900 tons, up 3800 tons [2]. - The half - monthly inventory of manganese - silicon manufacturers was 158,800 tons, down 2700 tons; the half - monthly inventory of silicon - iron manufacturers was 65,180 tons, down 6590 tons [2]. - The monthly inventory days of manganese - silicon in national steel mills was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; the monthly inventory days of silicon - iron in national steel mills was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2]. - The weekly demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 125,382 tons, up 182 tons; the weekly demand for silicon - iron from the five major steel types was 20,313.96 tons, up 47.66 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.57%, down 0.20 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17 percentage points [2]. - The monthly crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, down 3.524 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The central bank proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage, focusing on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices and creating effective demand through high - quality supply [2]. - China's coal consumption ratio decreased from 56.8% in 2020 to 53.2% in 2024, while the non - fossil energy consumption ratio increased from 15.9% to 19.8% [2]. - Although future real - estate new construction will decrease significantly, the existing housing stock will be huge. By 2030, the area of residential buildings over 30 years old will exceed 10 billion square meters [2]. - Trump mentioned in a call with Zelensky that Russia hopes Ukraine will hand over the Donbass region in exchange for a cease - fire [2].