双焦期货周度报告：六轮提涨落地，市场情绪降温-20250818

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sixth round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, with marginal profit improvement for coke enterprises. The average daily pig iron output this week was 240,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 340 tons, providing certain rigid demand support for raw materials. However, with the approaching of major events in September, there are expectations of production restrictions in Shandong, Hebei and other places, and downstream procurement enthusiasm may continue to decline. - Domestic supply is constantly disturbed, coal mine inventories are still at a low level, and short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent. It is expected that the short - term futures market will still have support [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The price of coking coal in the domestic market first rose and then fell this week. On the 14th, steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other places raised the tender price for coke procurement, which was the sixth round of price increases. The increases were 50 yuan/ton for tamped wet - quenched coke, 55 yuan/ton for tamped dry - quenched coke, 70 yuan/ton for top - charged wet - quenched coke, and 75 yuan/ton for top - charged dry - quenched coke [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - From August 12th, China and the US continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. - On August 15th, US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a meeting in Alaska, discussing issues such as the Ukraine issue and Russia - US relations, but no agreement was reached. - Nine departments issued the Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities, with an annual interest subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point for a maximum of 1 year. - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year. In July, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, it was 2.84238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, the stock of social financing scale increased by 9%, and the new RMB loans were - 5 billion yuan (the first negative growth since July 2005). - In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a daily - output increase of 4.7% month - on - month; 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons, a daily - output increase of 3.2% month - on - month; 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons, a daily - output decrease of 4.1% month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%; the daily output of pig iron was 2.33 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%; and the daily output of steel was 4.13 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [6][7][8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Some coal mines in Shanxi returned to the production - increasing rhythm this week, but due to underground conditions and the implementation of the "276 - working - day" policy, the overall production increase in Shanxi was slow. Some coal mines in Shaanxi stopped production due to moving faces, resulting in a significant decline in output. - Demand side: The sixth round of price increases for coke was fully implemented this week. The average daily pig iron output was 240,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 340 tons, providing certain rigid demand support for raw materials. However, with the approaching of major events in September, there are expectations of production restrictions in Shandong, Hebei and other places, and downstream procurement enthusiasm may continue to decline [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply side: Some coal mines resumed production this week, but some reduced production due to various factors. Overall supply recovery was slow. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 1,024 vehicles due to system adjustments, and the impact has now been basically eliminated. - Demand side: Coke production increased slightly, and the procurement rhythm of downstream enterprises slowed down after restocking. Coal mine inventories in some areas began to accumulate, but overall inventories decreased slightly due to pre - sales. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profits, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [31].