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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has weakened expectations for the magnitude of a September interest rate cut, as well as the number and scope of rate cuts within the year. However, a September rate cut remains highly likely, with a probability of over 80%. The precious metals market is still in a rally driven by interest rate cut expectations, though the strength of this rally fluctuates. During the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, gold and silver may experience a divergent trend. Gold may trade sideways or slightly bearish as the need for safe-haven assets diminishes, while silver may strengthen further, indicating a potential catch-up rally. [2] - The US economic data shows that the economy remains highly resilient. The RMB exchange rate has good resilience, and its impact on gold is limited, so it is not a key consideration. [3][26] Summary by Relevant Sections Chapter 1: Market Review - With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut, funds may continue to flow back to the US, providing some support for the US dollar. Against this backdrop, the sideways nature of gold may intensify, while silver is expected to continue its sideways-to-bullish trend as industrial demand increases with the anticipation of an economic recovery and the impending rate cut. In the long term, the trends of gold and silver will diverge. [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a meeting, which may inject positive momentum into global political stability. - US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of significant growth. The year-on-year increase reached 3.9%, and real retail sales adjusted for inflation rose by 1.2% year-on-year, achieving positive growth for the tenth consecutive month. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, remaining at the lowest level since November 2021. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week dropped to 1.953 million, slightly lower than expected but still hovering near the highest level since 2021. - The US PPI in July soared to 3.3% year-on-year, the highest since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%. The month-on-month increase was 0.9%, the largest since June 2022. - There are internal disagreements within the Bank of Japan. Some board members advocate abandoning the "potential inflation" indicator, which lacks a clear statistical framework, and instead focusing more on overall inflation and inflation expectations. This change may pave the way for a rate hike in October. - Several Fed officials spoke out, seemingly aiming to cool down the escalating expectations of an interest rate cut. - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates again and threatened to allow legal action against Fed Chairman Powell. He also announced the nomination of conservative economist E.J. Anthony as the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. [13][15][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Key Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase reaching 3.9%. Real retail sales adjusted for inflation rose by 1.2% year-on-year, achieving positive growth for the tenth consecutive month. The ISM non-manufacturing index in July declined from the previous value of 50.8 to 50.1, falling short of the expected 51.5. New orders almost stagnated, employment contracted, and the price index reached a new high since October 2022. The final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in July was 55.7, the highest since December 2024. The core PCE price index in June increased by 2.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.7%, reaching the highest level since February. Real consumer spending increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, and disposable income remained flat in June after a decline in May. Overall, the US economy shows high resilience. [17] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin may have a positive impact on global political stability. Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India, bringing the total tariff rate to 50%. He also announced a plan to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, with exemptions for companies building factories in the US. European leaders issued a joint statement on the Ukraine peace issue, expressing support for Trump's efforts to end the conflict. [22] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to 224,000, while the number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week dropped to 1.953 million. The ISM non-manufacturing index declined, and the S&P Global Services PMI reached a new high. Crude oil prices are still subject to significant fluctuations due to production cuts, and the improvement in the Middle East situation has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, reducing US inflationary pressures. The prices of domestic and international copper have shown divergent trends. As the expectation of a September rate cut strengthens, high-risk assets such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may further rally. [23] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate generally tracks the movement of the US dollar index. China's PMI data in July declined, and financial data such as social financing fell short of expectations. Consumption and investment data also weakened, indicating significant domestic economic challenges. However, the RMB exchange rate remains resilient, with a low probability of unexpected fluctuations. Therefore, the impact of the RMB exchange rate on gold, whether in the short term or in the long run, is limited and not a key consideration. [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Although the US PPI data in July significantly exceeded expectations and retail sales increased substantially month-on-month, the market has only weakened expectations for the magnitude of a September rate cut and the number and scope of rate cuts within the year. A September rate cut remains highly likely. Gold may trade sideways or slightly bearish as the need for safe-haven assets diminishes, while silver may strengthen further, indicating a potential catch-up rally. The synchronous movement and divergent trends of gold and silver coexist, making trading decisions challenging. [29]