有色日报：镍增仓下行-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Copper: Today, copper prices oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing below 79,000. The 9 - 10 spread increased. Domestically, the atmosphere is positive with rising stock indices, while overseas, the improving US - Russia relations maintain high market risk appetite. It's the off - season in China, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased by 11,800 tons on Monday compared to last Thursday. With macro - level benefits and weak industrial reality, the futures price will oscillate [5]. - Aluminum: Today, Shanghai aluminum dropped sharply in the morning and rebounded slightly in the afternoon, showing overall weak performance with decreasing positions. The non - ferrous sector oscillated weakly. Upstream bauxite port inventory, mid - stream electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and downstream aluminum rod inventory all decreased, which is beneficial for aluminum prices. As the peak season approaches, the futures price is expected to strengthen [6]. - Nickel: Today, Shanghai nickel decreased with increasing positions, and the main contract price approached the 120,000 mark. The non - ferrous sector oscillated weakly, and nickel prices were weaker than the sector. Nickel ore port inventory and SHFE inventory both increased, which is negative for nickel prices. The short - term commodity market atmosphere has cooled, and weak industrial support has led to a significant decline in nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 mark [7]. Industry Dynamics - Copper: On August 18, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 144,200 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the 11th and 11,800 tons compared to the 14th [9]. - Aluminum: From August 11 - 17, the domestic aluminum rod delivery volume was 49,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period [10]. - Nickel: On August 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,300 - 123,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,650 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 50 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. Relevant Charts Copper - Base difference, inventory, and other related charts: Include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [12][14][15] Aluminum - Base difference, inventory, and other related charts: Include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, alumina inventory, etc [25][27][29] Nickel - Base difference, inventory, and other related charts: Include nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][40][41]