钢材、铁矿石日报：关税扰动发酵，钢矿震荡回落-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.88%, showing a pattern of increasing volume and decreasing positions. In the current situation of stable supply and weak demand growth, the fundamentals of rebar continue to weaken. During the off - season, steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relative positives are the significant increase in costs and the limited real - world contradictions under low inventory, which limit the downward space. In the short term, the price will continue to show a weakly oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][37]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.20%, also showing increasing volume and decreasing positions. At present, the supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil has improved, but demand concerns remain, and supply is expected to increase. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. The relative positives are cost increases and production restrictions. With the game of multiple and short factors, the price of hot - rolled coil is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4][38]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.64%, showing an increase in both volume and positions. Currently, the demand for iron ore has good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply of ore has increased, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the valuation is relatively high, so the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the ore price will continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff list. The expanded tariff list took effect on August 18, 2025 [6]. - In July 2025, the wholesale sales of national passenger vehicle manufacturers reached 2.22 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. From January to July, the wholesale sales were 15.5 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.4%. The wholesale growth rate of independent car companies was 20% year - on - year, while that of luxury cars decreased by 16% year - on - year [7]. - In July 2025, China exported 6.13 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year increase of 19.0%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 42.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In July, the export of steel bars was 1.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 77.2%, and the cumulative export from January to July was 10.62 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.4% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,280 and 3,320 respectively, with the national average price at 3,374, showing a decrease of 10 and 0 respectively compared to the previous period, and the national average decreased by 10. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,450 and 3,410 respectively, with the national average price at 3,501, showing a decrease of 10 and 10 respectively compared to the previous period, and the national average increased by 3 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 770, a decrease of 2 compared to the previous period, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 778, remaining unchanged [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,155, a decrease of 0.88%, with a trading volume of 1,316,477 and an open interest of 1,609,893, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in positions [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3,419, a decrease of 0.20%, with a trading volume of 503,900 and an open interest of 1,202,731, also showing an increase in volume and a decrease in positions [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract was 772.0, a decrease of 0.64%, with a trading volume of 281,507 and an open interest of 448,903, showing an increase in both volume and positions [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, iron ore inventories at 45 ports, and inventories of 247 steel mills [13][18][20]. - It also includes charts related to steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [30][32][36]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The production of construction steel mills is stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Demand has weakened, and during the off - season, prices are still under pressure. However, cost increases and low inventory limit the downward space, so the short - term trend will continue to be weakly oscillating [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has improved, but demand concerns remain, and supply is expected to increase. With the game of multiple and short factors, the price is expected to continue to oscillate [38]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. Although demand resilience supports the price, supply has increased, and the upward driving force is not strong, so the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level [38].