星月“胶”辉之双胶期货系列报告（八）：豫鲁地区调研走访实录与市场杂谈之二

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industry's supply - demand pattern shows continuous capacity expansion and weak demand growth, which is consistent with previous research. There are significant differences in cost and formula among paper mills. The cash cost for enterprises to produce double - offset paper that meets the delivery standard is estimated to be in the range of 3800 - 4200 yuan/ton [3][40][42]. - After the futures are listed, double - offset paper prices face potential upward and downward risks. The downward risk comes from the negative feedback between price and cost, while the upward risk is due to the market's possible over - pessimism and high short - trading congestion [4][42][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - Product Structure: Enterprises focused on publishing have a higher proportion of natural - white paper. Orders from the publishing industry mainly require natural - white paper, while the proportion of natural - white paper in social orders is significantly lower. The difference in product structure between the north and south markets is due to order differences [8]. - Formula: Different enterprises have large differences in formula. With the continuous expansion of finished - paper production capacity and the slowdown of cultural - paper demand, enterprises are increasing the use of chemimechanical pulp and reducing the use of chemical pulp. Some producers in South China can make double - offset paper without adding softwood pulp [10][12]. - Capacity and Production: Some production lines may switch production. The overall operating level has not decreased significantly. Some enterprises achieved full production and sales in the first half of the year, while others had an operating level of about 80% - 90% [12]. - Raw Material Procurement: Most enterprises mainly purchase commercial pulp externally, covering mainstream softwood and hardwood brands. Some enterprises are self - sufficient in chemimechanical pulp, while others purchase it externally. It is difficult for some domestic hardwood pulp to completely replace imported hardwood pulp [15][18]. - Product Conversion: Converting between natural - white and high - white paper usually only requires adding bleach [20]. 3.2 Demand - Sales Channels: There is significant differentiation among sample enterprises. Publishing orders are mainly direct - sold, while social orders include both distribution and direct - to - printer sales [20]. - Seasonal Demand: The seasonal characteristics of demand are gradually being smoothed out. The consumption peak of pulp lags behind that of double - offset paper. There may be an opportunity for the strategy of going long on pulp and short on paper after downstream enterprises complete their bidding [22]. - Policy Impact: The "One Textbook, One Supplementary Material" policy has different impacts on publishers of different natures, mainly affecting social book - sellers. It may reduce the double - offset paper demand of private tutoring materials by about 20% - 30% [26]. - Sales Radius: Paper enterprises' sales can cover a radius of 500 - 800 km [26]. 3.3 Inventory - Raw Material Inventory: Self - produced pulp has little inventory, while the inventory days of externally purchased commercial pulp vary among enterprises, with small and medium - sized factories having shorter inventory days [27]. - Finished - Product Inventory: The inventory is slightly higher than last year but generally acceptable. Most enterprises' inventory levels are within one month, and they have clear inventory red lines [27]. - Downstream Inventory: Enterprises supplying paper to publishers usually reserve inventory in advance, with a cycle of half a year to one year. Traders may have a certain demand for stockpiling when the price reaches around 4000 yuan [29]. 3.4 Price and Cost - Pricing Logic: Paper mills price their products mainly based on orders and market conditions, i.e., demand - driven pricing. High inventory levels may lead to price cuts to reduce inventory [30]. - Cost Factors: Formula, wood - pulp self - sufficiency rate, and the presence of self - owned power plants have a significant impact on costs. A higher proportion of chemimechanical pulp and self - owned power plants can reduce costs [31]. - Profitability: Most producers still make a profit, while one enterprise is near the break - even point [37]. 3.5 Market Expectations - Paper Price Outlook: The industry's supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and most sample participants are not optimistic about paper prices. The downward space is estimated to be around 100 - 200 yuan/ton [38]. - Futures Attitude: The willingness of the industry to participate in futures depends on whether their products are delivery brands. Long - side acceptance willingness is relatively weak. Industry short - side forces need to see an absolute high price to enter the market, while long - side chips may come from private book - sellers and some traders with social - order resources [39].