大宗商品周度报告：中美经济数据偏弱，商品短期或震荡运行-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may fluctuate in the short - term due to weak Sino - US economic data. The oil and fat sector may be relatively strong, while the precious metals sector may adjust with fluctuations. Each sub - sector has different trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - economic factors [1]. - The non - ferrous sector may face pressure due to weak Sino - US economic data and low demand during the off - season. The black sector may fluctuate, with attention on the limit - production intensity near the military parade. The energy sector may see oil prices fluctuate weakly, and the chemical sector has different trends for different products [2]. - The agricultural sector has different trends for different products. The oil and fat sector may fluctuate strongly, while the rapeseed sector may face pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The commodity market rose slightly by 0.52% last week, with agricultural products leading the rise at 1.25%. Non - ferrous and energy - chemical sectors rose by 0.99% and 0.59% respectively, while precious metals and black sectors fell by 1.23% and 0.27% respectively [1][5]. - The top - gainers were palm oil (5.11%), soda ash (4.73%), and cotton (2.32%), and the top - losers were fuel oil (2.71%), methanol (2.55%), and eggs (2.3%) [1]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased slightly, with the agricultural and black sectors showing an upward trend in volatility. The overall market scale decreased slightly, and the out - flowing funds were mainly concentrated in the precious metals sector [1]. Sector Outlook - Precious Metals: The sector declined significantly last week. With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, it may adjust with fluctuations in the short - term [1]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Sino - US economic data is weak, and the demand is at a low level during the off - season. The sector may face pressure in the short - term [2]. - Black Metals: The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, with attention on the limit - production intensity near the military parade [2]. - Energy: The market's expectation of a loose supply - demand relationship is strengthened, and the oil price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. - Chemical Industry: The terminal demand for polyester products is expected to rebound, and the valuation of PX is improving. The glass price is supported by cost, while soda ash may face pressure [2]. - Agricultural Products: The USDA August report is positive for US soybeans. The oil and fat sector may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, while the rapeseed sector may face pressure [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs had an overall decline of 1.28%, and the total commodity ETFs had a decline of 0.51%. Different commodity ETFs had different performance in terms of net value, yield, scale, share change, and trading volume [38].