宏观利率周报：央行重提防空转“弱现实”和“强预期”仍待收敛-20250818

Economic Data - July economic data showed significant decline, with fixed asset investment down 0.63% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year, totaling 288,229 billion RMB[12] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.0% year-on-year, amounting to 53,580 billion RMB, with residential investment down 10.9%[12] - Social retail sales in July reached 38,780 billion RMB, growing 3.7% year-on-year, while retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 4.3%[12] Financial Trends - Non-bank financial institutions saw a deposit increase of 2.14 trillion RMB in July, reflecting a trend of residents moving deposits towards financial products[13] - Total deposits increased by 500 billion RMB in July, with household deposits decreasing by 1.1 trillion RMB[13] - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasized the need to prevent fund diversion, indicating potential delays in interest rate cuts[1] Market Outlook - The central bank's recent actions, including a buyout-style reverse repo, led to a rapid rise in ten-year government bond yields to 1.75%, indicating a steepening yield curve[1] - The report suggests maintaining a cautious stance until the "weak reality" and "strong expectations" converge[1] - The upcoming fiscal policies include personal consumption loan subsidies, which may enhance consumer spending and support economic recovery[10]