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流动性周报:债市波动率回升?-20250818
China Post Securities·2025-08-18 11:01

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound in bond market volatility is more influenced by institutional behavior. If the gradually decreasing rebound highs of long - term interest rates can be verified, the "downward triangle" pattern is still a signal for trading or allocation, and the configuration window is opening [3][5][18]. - In the second half of the year, with the decrease in government bond issuance after August, the re - brewing of policy rate cuts, and the realization of fundamental pressure, there is still a possibility of opening up the downward space for interest rates. The improvement of expectations has begun, but the market still needs to return to the actual operation of the debt cycle and growth cycle [3][11]. - Monetary policy is still in the "waiting period", emphasizing the implementation of previous policies, and subsequent operations are still being brewed. The policy has no intention to actively guide the yield to rise [4][13]. - Liquidity remains stable and loose in the third quarter, and the stability of funds and short - term bonds is the moat for the current bond market [4][16]. 3. Summary by Related Content Bond Market Situation - Short - term bond market trends are still under pressure. It is important to verify the gradually decreasing rebound highs of long - term interest rates. The judgment that "the probability of long - term yield decline has not substantially decreased, and the odds have increased during the adjustment" still holds [3][5][11]. - The debt cycle is in the "clearing stage". The government is in the "leveraging up" stage, while the debt cycles of enterprises and residents still need to be cleared. The improvement of expectations is manifested in the rebound of risk appetite [3][11]. - The rebound in bond market volatility is mainly due to institutional behavior. The intraday fluctuations of active bonds have significantly increased, which is a manifestation of the stock game characteristics of trading desks. The repair of the Treasury bond term spread is obvious, indicating that the odds are increasing [5][18]. Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is in the "waiting period". The tone has changed from "implement well" to "implement in detail", emphasizing the implementation of previous policies. The subsequent aggregate - level monetary policy operations are still being brewed [4][13]. - The policy mentions "preventing capital idling" again and does not mention "Treasury bond trading". The policy's demand for yield is relatively neutral and has no intention to actively guide the yield to rise [4][13]. - The central bank's view on prices also focuses on the impact of "governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises" [13]. Liquidity - Liquidity in the third quarter is likely to remain stably loose. The stability of funds and short - term bonds is the moat for the bond market. The point - in - time fluctuations of the current capital market still follow the trajectory of 2022. The incremental investment of long - term liquidity through repurchase in August and the expected increase in the investment of structural monetary policy in the third quarter support the view that the capital market is loose [4][16].