能源日报-20250818

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a wait - and - see approach recommended [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is still sensitive to upside risks caused by geopolitical factors, and it is recommended to continue holding the double - buy strategy of out - of - the - money options [2] - The fuel oil market has abundant arrivals, and the supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is marginally relieved, with different performance in variety spreads [3] - The supply and demand of asphalt are expected to tighten marginally, with the price range - bound and the crack spread expected to gradually recover [4] - The overseas LPG market is stable, while the domestic market is under pressure, and the market is in a low - level shock [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the crude oil futures fluctuated, and the SC09 contract fell 0.71% due to the impact of position transfer. The risk of Russian oil sanctions is trending to ease, but short - term uncertainties remain. The market is sensitive to upside risks from geopolitical factors, and it is advisable to continue holding the double - buy strategy of out - of - the money options [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The arrival of fuel oil in the Asian market is abundant, with weak ship - bunkering and power - generation demands. The inventories in Singapore and Fujairah are high, and the diesel crack spread in Singapore continues to decline. The approval of the quota for converting low - sulfur fuel oil to refined oil by main refineries marginally relieves the supply pressure, and LU is boosted. FU is weaker than LU but stronger than SC, and the FU crack spread strengthens [3] Asphalt - The supply and demand of asphalt have tightened slightly as expected. The diversion effect of Venezuelan oil imports by the US on North Asian resources may gradually appear, and the cumulative output of asphalt by Sinopec is declining year - on - year. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, the road demand is expected to rise. The August shipment volume of sample refineries increased 8% year - on - year, and leading indicators are positive. The BU price follows SC but shows certain resistance to decline. The price of the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton, and the crack spread is expected to gradually recover [4] LPG - The overseas LPG market is stable, with increased exports but supported by East Asian procurement demand. The domestic imports and refinery out - put are rising, and domestic gas is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is continuously weakening, and the sustainability of the high operating rate needs attention. The market is waiting for the implementation of bearish expectations, with strong pressure at the top due to high warehouse receipts, and the high - basis pattern can continue, mainly in low - level shock [5]