有色金属日报-20250818

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall market for non - ferrous metals shows different trends and investment opportunities. Each metal has its own supply - demand fundamentals, inventory status, and price trends, which affect investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuates around the MA40 daily moving average, with high - level oscillations affecting downstream procurement. The current demand is mainly supported by power grid orders, and consumption is in the off - season. Domestic refined copper production increased in July and August. The supply - demand resilience is due to the low operating rate of recycled copper affected by policies. SMM social inventory increased by 8,100 tons to 133,700 tons. The upper trading resistance in the copper market is significant, and the expected trading range of Shanghai copper is 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined slightly, with a spot discount of 20 yuan in East China. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 19,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. Downstream开工 is stable, and the peak of off - season inventory accumulation may be approaching. Inventory is likely to remain low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price is maintained at 19,900 yuan. Alumina has excess supply, with rising industry inventory and warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and it oscillates weakly [2] Zinc - The domestic zinc fundamentals show increasing supply and weak demand. SMM zinc social inventory continues to rise to 135,400 tons. Shanghai zinc has fallen for 4 consecutive trading days, and the 60 - day moving average is being tested. Due to repeated macro - sentiment, the direction of Shanghai zinc is unclear, and investors tend to take profits. The external inventory is at a low level, and a phased return of long positions needs to be vigilant. With the incremental supply from mines being realized as expected, the mid - term strategy is to short on rebounds, waiting for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Lead consumption shows a lackluster peak season, dragging down the price to oscillate weakly. The raw material supply is tightly constrained, and the cost strongly supports the price. Recycled lead is sold at a low price reluctantly, and in some areas, the refined - scrap price is inverted. SMM lead social inventory has slightly decreased. In late August, attention should be paid to traffic control in major lead - producing areas and routine maintenance of primary lead. After the Beginning of Autumn, the weather improves, and with the approaching of the school season, demand is expected to pick up. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton, and also pay attention to the opportunities of end - of - term call options [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel slightly corrected on Monday, with average trading. Stainless steel social inventory has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks. However, downstream terminals are still reluctant to accept high - priced stainless steel. With the increase in stainless steel production in August, supply is expected to increase, and there is still some uncertainty in the market. In the spot market, Jinchuan nickel has a premium of 2,200 yuan, imported nickel has a premium of 350 yuan, and electrowon nickel has a premium of 125 yuan. High - nickel ferro - nickel is priced at 927 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has slightly rebounded. Nickel ferro - nickel inventory is basically stable at 33,000 tons. Pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 42,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 934,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and it is advisable to actively short [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillates around the MA40 daily moving average. Attention should be paid to the impact of the production capacity of leading enterprises on the domestic supply side. It is expected that there is some room for inventory reduction in domestic tin social inventory. Overseas inventory is mainly at a low level. Attention should be paid to the changes in LME weak inventory and the 0 - 3 month spread after the third Wednesday. Although tin prices oscillate as a whole, there is a risk of an upward shift in the trading center. Middle and downstream enterprises should place orders at low prices. The overall oscillation range is expected to be between 263,000 - 280,000 yuan, with the high - level area above 275,000 yuan. Short - term long positions entered on corrections should be held based on the MA60 daily moving average [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price opened higher and oscillated, with active trading. The battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 84,600 yuan, with a price difference of 2,300 yuan between battery - grade and industrial - grade. The spot market has seen consecutive sharp increases, with a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan being rare in recent years. As the price increase trend is established, downstream material enterprises' inquiry enthusiasm has significantly increased due to rigid demand procurement and potential reduction in customer - supplied materials. The total market inventory is basically stable at 142,000 tons, with smelter inventory decreasing by 1,000 tons to 50,000 tons, downstream inventory remaining unchanged at 48,000 tons, and trader inventory increasing by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The sharp price fluctuation has significantly impacted and deterred downstream purchasing. The latest Australian ore price is 995 US dollars, and the ore price is generally firm. The lithium carbonate futures price is strong, and the market focus is on the expectation after the shutdown of sub - standard plants for the 930 contract. In the short term, it is difficult to disprove this, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on the price. The short - term strategy is to go long with good risk control [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures slightly declined, giving back the intraday gains. The price was supported by the sentiment in the polysilicon market in the short term, and the supporting effect of policy expectations continued to show. However, recent photovoltaic industry conferences have not released new detailed information, and the improvement in the industrial silicon fundamentals is limited under the pattern of both supply and demand increasing. Therefore, the upside space is expected to be limited, and the main contract is expected to oscillate between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon recovered part of the intraday gains. At the policy level, although the news of photovoltaic - related conferences has been released, the policy details have not been substantially advanced, and the price increase driven by market sentiment is limited. At the spot level, terminal and downstream demand are stable, while polysilicon production has increased significantly. The high - inventory pattern will suppress the upside elasticity of the price. With the futures price at a premium, the increase in warehouse receipts is significant, and there is hedging pressure. The operation strategy is to go long around 50,000 yuan/ton, and there is still resistance above 53,000 yuan/ton [10]