油脂：棕油强势延续，菜油小幅反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the US soybean crush volume in July reached a six - month high and exceeded market expectations. CBOT soybean prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 were strong, with only a slight month - on - month increase in production, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price remained strong. Domestically, the soybean oil inventory continued to rise, and factors like increased exports and the Sino - US trade risk premium supported the soybean oil price. The mid - autumn festival stocking will start at the end of the month, and the progress of the Sino - US game should be followed. The palm oil inventory rose slightly, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its futures price mainly follows the cost of the external market. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory is on a downward trend. Despite rumors of active far - month transactions of Australian rapeseed, the expectation of tight rapeseed imports remains due to the Sino - Canadian tariff issue [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre [2]. - The NOPA's monthly crush report showed that on July 31, 2025, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA members was 1.379 billion pounds, a 0.4% decrease from the end of June and an 8% decrease from the same period last year [2]. - From August 1 - 15, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month [2]. - As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1427 million tons, a 0.44% increase from the previous week [2]. - As of the week ending August 10, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed increased by 864.4% to 254,600 tons compared with the previous week, and the commercial inventory was 940,200 tons [3]. - As of the week ending August 15, the soybean crush volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.34 million tons, with increases compared to the previous week, the previous month, the same period last year, and the average of the past three years [3]. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific content about fundamental data charts is provided other than the title. Views and Strategies - International: The US soybean crush volume in July was high, exceeding expectations. The CBOT soybean price is oscillating narrowly. Malaysian palm oil exports are strong, and its futures price is strong [5]. - Domestic: Soybean oil inventory is rising, and price is supported. Pay attention to the Sino - US game. Palm oil inventory rises slightly, and its price follows the external market. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the expectation of tight imports remains [5].