黑色产业数据每日监测-20250818

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The terminal demand in the black industry continues to be weak, spot trading is poor, and speculative demand has also weakened. However, there is still an expectation of production restrictions. Recently, market sentiment has cooled significantly. It is expected that there is still room for correction in the black industry, but differentiation among varieties may intensify [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures generally declined. The rebar closed at 3155 yuan/ton, down 0.88%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3460 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the iron ore main contract closed at 772 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke both declined today, with the coking coal decline close to 3% [1]. Market Analysis - Inventory: Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 406,100 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. Both the social inventory and the steel mill inventory increased by nearly 3% month - on - month. Specifically, the steel mill inventories of all five varieties increased to varying degrees. The wire rod steel mill inventory increased by 8.13%, and its total inventory increased by 5.5%, with the apparent demand decreasing by 1.35% month - on - month. Rebar was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in production among the five major varieties. The steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, the social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and the total inventory also decreased by 5.5%. However, the apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, reaching a new low in the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [1]. - Supply: The profitability rate of 247 steel mills rebounded by 2.6% to 65.8%. The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% compared with last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 3,400 tons to 240,660 tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2%. Last week, the shortage of scrap resources remained unchanged. Since the increase in scrap prices was greater than that of rebar, the spread between rebar and scrap narrowed. The daily average crude steel output of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased by 0.86% week - on - week. However, some regions with high profits still had steel mills resuming production. As of August 15, the average capacity utilization rate and operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills both increased month - on - month [1]. Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the change in the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].