冠通期货铜周度策略展望-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, after the release of US CPI data, the market increased expectations for a Fed rate cut, with the probability of a rate cut exceeding 90%. However, the soaring US PPI data on Thursday reduced the possibility of an unexpected rate cut, and the US dollar index rebounded accordingly. Domestically, nine departments including the Ministry of Finance jointly implemented a "discount interest" policy for service - industry loans to reduce financing costs and stimulate consumption. The economic data in July was weaker than before, and the central bank stated that it would implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - In terms of supply, the port inventory of refined copper ore has declined to the lowest level in the past five years. The collapse of the El Teniente copper mine in southern Chile led to a short - term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees of smelters continued to stabilize and rebound. Long - term contract orders were profitable, while spot orders were still at a loss. The sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. Only one smelter had a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - production smelter in East China started production. It is expected that the refined copper output will not fluctuate significantly, but smelters may cut or stop production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory [4]. - Regarding demand, downstream demand was lukewarm. Although new orders increased, market trading volume decreased month - on - month. The real estate sector still dragged down downstream demand, with real estate development investment from January to July decreasing by 12% year - on - year and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreasing by 4% year - on - year. However, the power grid and new energy sectors brought demand resilience. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week, reflecting weak short - term demand and a pattern of loose supply and demand [4]. - Overall, last week, the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut boosted the Shanghai copper price. After the PPI data exceeded expectations on Thursday, the Shanghai copper price first rose and then fell, but the overall center of gravity maintained an upward trend. Due to the expected tight supply and the impact of the Chilean copper mine incident, and with the demand side in the off - season, downstream operations remained stable with a downward trend, and the market trading sentiment was lukewarm. The Shanghai copper price maintained a range - bound pattern. A Fed rate cut in September has been confirmed, and an unexpected rate cut should be watched out for [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - On August 12, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in July rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeded 90%. - On August 14, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest level since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%; it rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase since June 2022, cooling the Fed rate - cut expectation [10]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper showed an overall oscillatory and strengthening trend. The highest price of the week was 79,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,410 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.4%, and the range increase was 0.73% [14]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of August 18, the average spot premium in East China was 200 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 40 yuan/ton. The market supply was tight, and with more domestic smelter maintenance, the spot premium strengthened. It is expected that the premium will face pressure after the arrival of imported goods next month [21]. 3.4 LME Copper Price and Inventory - As of August 18, the weekly change rate of LME copper was +0.31%, closing at $9,730/ton. The LME copper spot discount continued to weaken, and the LME copper inventory continued to increase, with sufficient deliverable goods in the market [27]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - According to customs data, in July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. As of August 15, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports was 422,000 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons from the previous week. - The El Teniente copper mine of Codelco in Chile had a mine collapse on July 31, and the smelter restarted on August 13 [32]. 3.6 Smelter Fees - As of August 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) in China was -$37.65/ton, and the RC fee was -3.76 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. The TC/RC of the long - term contract negotiation result was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound. Long - term contract orders were profitable, while spot orders were still at a loss. The sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. Factory seasonal maintenance plans in September and October will still lead to production reduction [36]. 3.7 Refined Copper Supply - In July, SMM's electrolytic copper output in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 7.7673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.82%. With the gradual recovery of previously maintained smelters, only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - production smelter in East China started production. It is expected that the output will not fluctuate significantly. In the later third quarter, production may be cut or stopped due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory. - In July, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 480,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 3.113 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [40]. 3.8 Scrap Copper Supply - In June 2025, scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, with a relatively high year - on - year import volume and higher than market expectations. - As the price difference between refined and scrap copper increased, the substitution advantage of scrap copper decreased, and the scrap copper utilization rate of smelters decreased [46]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a historically high level. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. It is estimated that China's refined copper consumption will increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026. - Downstream demand was lukewarm. Although new orders increased, market trading volume decreased month - on - month. However, the power grid and new energy markets were resilient, providing price support [50]. 3.10 Copper Products - According to Ganglian data, in July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. The start - up rate was lower than expected. Downstream cable procurement was cautious, the processing fee of copper rods was under pressure, and some refined copper rod enterprises cut production unexpectedly. Currently, the operating load is at a historically low level, and the reduction in August is expected to be limited. - The operating load of copper tube enterprises remained basically stable, showing a slight downward trend. Some manufacturers planned to increase production due to concerns about future supply shortages. Market demand was weak, and there was also phased replenishment [55]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - According to data from the National Energy Administration, from January to June, the investment in power grid projects was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, reaching a record high for the same period. From January to June, the investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% year - on - year respectively. The power grid project is still a rigid demand for copper, supporting the copper price [59]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year - on - year. From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%, 0.5 percentage points wider than that from January to June; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 4,956.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, 0.5 percentage points wider than that from January to June [64]. 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - From August 1 - 10, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 262,000, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 6%, with a penetration rate of 57.9%. As of now, the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.717 million, a year - on - year increase of 28% [70]. 3.14 Global Copper Inventory in Major Exchanges - After the end of the copper siphon effect and a large increase in LME copper inventory, the inventory increase rate has recently slowed down. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03% and a month - on - month increase of 28.76%. The increase rate of COMEX inventory also gradually slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 267,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.16% and a month - on - month increase of 11.59% [76]. - On August 14, the cumulative spot inventory of copper in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 86,800 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons compared with July 7 and an increase of 5,300 tons compared with August 11. The bonded area inventory continued to increase. During the week, the exported goods of smelters continued to arrive and be stored in the warehouse. Although some goods in individual warehouses were cleared and imported into the country, the overall inbound volume was greater than the outbound volume, resulting in an increase in inventory. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained in a low - level oscillation and has not increased significantly yet, but it increased by 3,288 tons compared with the previous week, still showing a pattern of weak downstream demand and loose supply [81].