黑色金属日报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Commodity | Rating | | --- | --- | | Rebar | ☆☆☆ | | Hot-rolled Coil | ☆☆ | | Iron Ore | ☆☆☆ | | Coke | ★☆☆ | | Coking Coal | ★☆☆ | | Silicon Manganese | ★☆☆ | | Ferrosilicon | ★☆☆ | [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a weak demand situation with the overall internal demand remaining weak, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. - The iron ore market has limited fundamental contradictions in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets have sufficient carbon element supply, and the prices are greatly affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectations, with large short - term volatility and relatively small downside space [4][6]. - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets have good demand, and their prices are also greatly affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectations, with the silicon manganese price following the coking coal and the ferrosilicon following the silicon manganese [7][8]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - The rebar's apparent demand continues to decline, production slightly drops, and inventory accumulation accelerates; the hot - rolled coil's apparent demand improves, production slightly rises, and inventory accumulation slows down [2]. - The iron - water production remains high, and the market feedback pressure is small under the low - inventory pattern. With the approaching parade, attention should be paid to the production - restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places [2]. - From the July data, real estate sales decline expands, investment continues to decline significantly, infrastructure and manufacturing growth slows down, and domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain relatively high [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment this period increases significantly compared with the previous period and is also stronger than the same period last year. The shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions are strong and at a high level in recent years, while the improvement of Australian shipments is relatively limited. The domestic arrival volume increases this period and is similar to the same period in previous years [3]. - On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel declines, and the iron - water production slightly increases. With the approaching parade, there is an expectation of iron - water production reduction in the future [3]. - At the macro level, external tariff fluctuations still exist, domestic demand needs policy support, and market sentiment has cooled down [3]. Coke - Due to the approaching major event, there is an expectation of production restriction for coking plants in East China [4]. - After the seventh round of price increase for coke, the coking profit improves, and the daily coking production slightly increases [4]. - The overall coke inventory continues to decline, and traders' purchasing willingness is good [4]. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal mines decreases, the spot transaction market maintains a good level, the transaction price mainly rises, and the terminal inventory remains flat [6]. - The total coking coal inventory decreases month - on - month, the decline of production - end inventory narrows, and it is likely to continue to reduce inventory in the short term [6]. Silicon Manganese - The iron - water production remains above 240, and the weekly production of silicon manganese continues to increase, reaching a relatively high level. The inventory has not increased, and the spot and futures demand is good [7]. - The manganese ore price decreased slightly last week. Due to the approaching major event, there are many early stocking behaviors by manufacturers, and the outbound volume at Tianjin Port is at a high level [7]. - In the long term, it is predicted that the manganese ore will continue to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7]. Ferrosilicon - The iron - water production slightly decreases but remains above 240. The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact [8]. - The production of magnesium metal decreases slightly month - on - month, the secondary demand slightly declines, and the overall demand is acceptable [8]. - The ferrosilicon supply continues to increase significantly, the spot and futures market demand is good, and the on - balance - sheet inventory slightly decreases [8].