农产品日报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy with Caution (★☆☆): Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Hogs [1] - Neutral (☆☆☆): Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - Analysis Unclear: Soybean, Eggs [1] 2. Core Views - Soybean & Soybean Meal: USDA's August report was bullish for US soybeans, and dry conditions in the US may challenge new - season soybean growth. China's soybean supply is sufficient in the short - term but uncertain in the long - term. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors can enter on pullbacks [3]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Indonesian policies and market expectations have driven up palm oil prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility or correction, but in the long - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed market was pressured by import expectations last week. However, considering the possible timing of Australian rapeseed imports, there may be a short - term rebound in rapeseed futures prices, and a short - term long strategy is advisable [6]. - Corn: The continuous release of imported corn has affected market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7]. - Live Hogs: Supply pressure will keep live hog prices weak in the second half of the year. The 11 - contract has rebounded and then fallen, and industrial players are advised to hedge on rallies [8]. - Eggs: High production capacity has pressured egg prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of profit - taking by short - selling funds, and the market is in a contango situation [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean - Last week, soybean prices fluctuated greatly due to the influence of surrounding varieties and the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on rapeseed. However, due to weak fundamentals, prices quickly fell after a short - term rise. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is shrinking. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy impacts [2] Soybean Meal - USDA's August report was bullish for US soybeans. In the next two weeks, dry conditions in the US may challenge new - season soybean growth. China's soybean supply is sufficient in the short - term but uncertain in the long - term. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors can enter on pullbacks [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Indonesian policies and market expectations have driven up palm oil prices. The strength of the palm oil market is mainly driven by the Indonesian market. The relative valuation of palm oil is not low. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility or correction, but in the long - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market was pressured by import expectations last week. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to be good. There is a possibility that Australian rapeseed will enter the Chinese market, but it is uncertain when. The rapeseed futures prices may rebound in the short - term, and a short - term long strategy is advisable [6] Corn - As of August 18th, the low - volume trading of imported corn auctions has affected market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The supply of live hogs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and prices are likely to remain weak. The 11 - contract has rebounded and then fallen, and industrial players are advised to hedge on rallies [8] Eggs - High production capacity has pressured egg prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of profit - taking by short - selling funds, and the market is in a contango situation [9]