南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current speculation on mining license issues may be overheated. The market has two logics: one is the "step - by - step" upward chain of "futures rise - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" driven by macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, which may lead to a temporary shortage of lithium ore and push up the price center of lithium salts; the other is the "negative feedback" cycle of "lithium salt decline - ore price loosening - lithium salt decline again" in the downward price cycle. The cost reduction also drives the downward movement of the price center of lithium carbonate. Overall, the futures market in the second half of the year is expected to rise in the third quarter and fall in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - Price and Volatility: The short - term strong support level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 42.2% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 73.5% [2]. - Contract Performance: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the lithium carbonate main contract and LC2601 contract all increased. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose from 86,900 yuan/ton to 89,240 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,340 yuan/ton (2.69%) and a weekly increase of 8,240 yuan/ton (10.17%) [9]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The LC11 - 12 spread decreased from 320 to 0, a 100% decrease; the LC11 - 01 spread decreased from 480 to 200, a 58% decrease [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - Lithium Ore: The average daily prices of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone, all increased. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) rose from 2,100 yuan/ton to 2,185 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 85 yuan/ton (4.05%) and a weekly increase of 310 yuan/ton (16.53%) [15]. - Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide all increased. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose from 80,400 yuan/ton to 82,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,900 yuan/ton (2.36%) and a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan/ton (13.83%) [18]. - Downstream Products: The average daily prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose from 35,655 yuan/ton to 36,170 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 515 yuan/ton (1.44%) [23]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Basis: The basis of lithium carbonate main contract and brand basis of different companies are provided. For example, the brand basis of Tianqi Lithium Industry (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 400 yuan/ton [26]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased from 21,939 to 23,485, an increase of 1,546. The warehouse receipts of some warehouses increased, such as Xiangyu Speed Transmission Shanghai, which increased from 1,870 to 2,010 [29][30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Production profit, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate are presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [32]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of impairment, it is recommended to short lithium carbonate futures (20% of inventory) and sell call options (20%) to lock in profits and hedge risks. Buying out - of - the - money put options is also recommended [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with future procurement plans, it is recommended to buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, and sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].