Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend due to strong demand factors [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 is likely to continue in a weaker pattern under the influence of a sharp decline in domestic coal futures prices and a weak supply - demand fundamental [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend as the demand growth rate has declined and the OPEC+ is increasing production, which may lead to a record supply surplus in the global crude oil market next year [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 61.99 million tons, a decrease of 1.19 million tons or 1.89% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.24%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 2.11%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [8]. - As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The production and sales growth rates increased by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with January - June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.16%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8633 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,500 tons, and a significant increase of 79,000 tons compared with the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 9.17%, a week - on - week increase of 2.90%. The acetic acid operating rate was 86.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The MTBE operating rate was 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 1.21% [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.18 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.61%. As of August 15, 2025, the futures contract profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 162 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 29 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 891,100 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 87,800 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 295,100 tons, and a significant increase of 102,100 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 14, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 295,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 56,700 tons, and a significant decrease of 142,700 tons compared with 438,400 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 411, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 74 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.327 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 43,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 27,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 427 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.036 million barrels and a significant decrease of 3.98 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.051 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 45,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 226,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 96.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.9 percentage points [12]. - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 116,742 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts and a significant decrease of 66,428 contracts or 36.27% compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 12, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 199,820 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts and a significant decrease of 20,256 contracts or 9.20% compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 15,820 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | - 1,070 yuan/ton | + 85 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,340 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 2,396 yuan/ton | - 16 yuan/ton | - 56 yuan/ton | + 16 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 459.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 486.5 yuan/barrel | - 1.6 yuan/barrel | - 26.9 yuan/barrel | + 1.3 yuan/barrel | [13] 3. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, WTI and Brent net - position changes, etc.) [14][26][39]
橡胶甲醇原油:偏空因素压制,能化震荡偏弱
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-18 11:22