海外公司财报点评：业绩表现稳健，预计Q3实现收入同比转正

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][20]. Core Views - The company reported a steady performance in Q2 2025, with revenue of 25.8 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 4.0%. Product revenue was 23.8 billion yuan, down 5%, while other revenue increased by 12% to 2 billion yuan. The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between 20.7 billion and 21.7 billion yuan, indicating a return to growth with a year-over-year increase of 0%-5% [1][7]. - The company's GMV for the quarter was 51.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2%. The number of active buyers was 43.5 million, down 2% year-over-year, while SVIP membership grew by 15%, contributing to 52% of online consumption [1][7]. - The company continues to focus on enhancing its online outlet business and expanding its presence in suitable cities for its outlet operations [1][7]. Revenue Summary - For Q2 2025, the company reported total revenue of 25.8 billion yuan, with product revenue at 23.8 billion yuan and other revenue at 2 billion yuan. The company anticipates Q3 revenue to be between 20.7 billion and 21.7 billion yuan, indicating a potential return to growth [1][2][7]. - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 107.2 billion, 109.9 billion, and 112.3 billion yuan, reflecting year-over-year changes of -1%, +3%, and +2% respectively [2][8]. Profitability Summary - The company reported a Non-GAAP operating profit of 2.4 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with an operating margin of 9.3%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 2.1 billion yuan, with a net margin of 8.0%, showing a slight year-over-year decline of 0.1 percentage points [2][8]. - The company has maintained stable expense ratios, with fulfillment, sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 8.2%, 2.8%, 1.7%, and 5.0% respectively [2][8]. Financial Forecasts - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 include adjusted net profits of 9 billion, 9.2 billion, and 9.5 billion yuan, with year-over-year changes of -1%, +2%, and +4% respectively [2][8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 7x for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [2][8].