历史上融资盘快速流入如何演绎？

Group 1 - The report identifies four significant instances of rapid inflow of financing in A-shares from 2014 to present, with the first instance (2014.82015.5) being the longest and largest in scale, but with limited reference value due to its unique historical context [1][15][17] - The second instance of rapid inflow (2019.22019.4) was primarily driven by improvements in the macroeconomic environment, including a temporary easing of US-China trade tensions and monetary policy easing [1][17] - The third instance (2020.62020.8) was attributed to the stabilization of overseas equity markets and improved profit expectations for A-share companies following global economic disruptions [2][17] - The fourth instance (2024.92024.11) was linked to a shift in macroeconomic policy aimed at boosting consumption and improving livelihoods, supported by a series of financial policies [2][17] Group 2 - The report notes that after a period of rapid inflow, the momentum may weaken, typically observed 2-3 months post-inflow, reflecting a potential cooling of investor sentiment [3][18] - It highlights that macro policy implementation or shifts, along with a lack of unexpected improvements in fundamentals, could lead to a slowdown in financing inflows or even market corrections [3][18] - The current financing heat in A-shares is suggested to have returned to an overheated state, as indicated by financing balance and trading volume metrics surpassing historical averages [5][23][27] Group 3 - The report analyzes the leading sectors during the rapid inflow periods from 2019 to 2024, noting that the rotation of leading sectors occurs quickly, with varying numbers of sectors consistently performing well across different inflow periods [6][32] - It distinguishes between sectors driven by fundamental factors and those influenced by thematic catalysts, with examples including feed and digital media in 2019, consumer electronics and photovoltaic equipment in 2020, and financial IT and Huawei supply chain in 2024 [6][32] - The report concludes that sectors driven by fundamentals are more likely to continue rising after a slowdown in financing inflows, while those driven by themes may face higher chances of correction [6][33]