债市情绪面周报（8月第2周）：股市十年新高之际，债市情绪如何？-20250818

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Hua'an Securities' View: Amid the market style shift, there are still short - term long - trading opportunities in the bond market. Although the bond market has faced a style shift due to the strong performance of the stock and commodity markets, investors can still find long - trading opportunities such as taking advantage of the steeper curve and wider spreads, paying attention to the increased willingness of allocation investors to buy bonds when funds are loose, considering the possible short - covering of certain 30 - year Treasury bonds, and seizing the entry opportunity after the bond market correction. [2] - Seller's View: Only 30% of fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market, over 60% hold a neutral attitude, and the sentiment remains the same as last week. [3] - Buyer's View: The overall view of fixed - income buyers is neutral, and the sentiment index has declined. Over 80% of buyers hold a neutral view. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Seller and Buyer Market - Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds: The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.21, up from last week, and the unweighted index is 0.26, unchanged from last week. 32% of institutions are bullish, 61% are neutral, and 6% are bearish. [11] - Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds: The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.05, down 0.07 from last week, and the unweighted index is 0.06, down 0.097 from last week. 13% of institutions are bullish, 81% are neutral, and 6% are bearish. [12] - Credit Bonds: The market focuses on the "stock - bond seesaw" and "stable wealth - management scale". Due to the continuous rise of the equity market suppressing the bond market, it is recommended to shorten the duration. The wealth - management scale is stable, and the short - term liability pressure is controllable. [16] - Convertible Bonds: Institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view this week. 77% of institutions are bullish, and 23% are neutral. [19] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Tracking - Futures Trading: As of August 15, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL Treasury bond futures contracts decreased compared to last Friday, the trading volume increased, the open interest decreased, and the trading - to - open - interest ratio increased. [24][25] - Cash Bond Trading: On August 15, the turnover rates of 30Y Treasury bonds, interest - rate bonds, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds all increased compared to last week. [32] - Basis Trading: Except for the TS contract, the basis of other main contracts narrowed. The net basis of TS/T/TL main contracts widened, and the IRR of main contracts generally increased. [44][45][47] - Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads: The inter - period spreads of main contracts generally widened, and the inter - variety spreads showed mixed trends. [58][59]