美联储专题研究：美联储换届暗流涌动，谁能摘得新任主席桂冠？

Group 1: Federal Reserve Background and Structure - Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chairman will end in May 2026, with President Trump frequently calling for interest rate cuts and criticizing Powell as "too late" this year[4] - The FOMC voting committee consists of 12 members, including 7 Federal Reserve governors with 14-year terms, 1 New York Fed president, and 4 rotating regional Fed presidents[10] - Trump can appoint up to 2 new Federal Reserve governors during his current term, potentially leading to 4 out of 7 governors being appointed by him by 2028[13] Group 2: Potential Candidates for Chairmanship - The top candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair include Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, and Kevin Walsh, with Waller having a 34% chance of winning the nomination as of August 18, 2025[30] - Waller advocates for a shift in focus from "controlling inflation" to "preventing economic recession," emphasizing the importance of labor market feedback[30] - Hassett supports a more aggressive interest rate cut path and believes the Fed should prioritize economic stimulation over inflation concerns[34] Group 3: Policy Implications and Risks - If Waller is appointed, the Fed's policy may prioritize labor market conditions, with a potential preventive interest rate cut of 25 basis points[31] - Hassett's appointment could lead to increased scrutiny of the Fed's independence and a shift towards quantitative easing to support fiscal policies[34] - Risks include unexpected policy shifts from Trump and a rapid economic downturn that could prompt Powell to adopt a more dovish stance[37]