豆粕生猪：进口成本支撑，连粕震荡上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract fluctuates widely, with strong support in the 3120 - 3130 range, remaining in an upward - prone and downward - resistant pattern in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term target is set at 3300. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to rise, but the inventory pressure of oil mills restricts the recovery of the spot basis [17][18]. - For live pigs, the short - term slaughter rhythm may change due to farmers' resistance to price cuts, and the spot price will adjust steadily. The decline of live pig futures prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait for a callback to lightly test long positions [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The main DCE soybean meal 2601 contract rose 0.57% to 3155 yuan/ton, and coastal oil mills' quotes increased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The main DCE live pig 2601 contract decreased by 0.46% to 14160 yuan/ton, and the national average ex - factory price of live pigs dropped by 0.02 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 1.14% to 1043 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - Temperatures in the US Midwest will rise this weekend. There will be scattered showers in the north of the western region until Sunday and on Monday, and temperatures from Friday to Monday will be above normal. The eastern region was generally dry on Friday, with scattered showers in the north from Saturday to Monday, and temperatures above normal. There may be floods in some areas around Minnesota and Wisconsin, and more areas may face drought after the front passes [3]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - As of the week ending August 15, the domestic soybean crushing volume of major oil mills was 234 million tons, up 16 million tons week - on - week, 3 million tons month - on - month, 31 million tons year - on - year, and 52 million tons higher than the average of the past three years. It is expected to reach 240 million tons this week [4]. - On August 18, the import cost of US soybeans was 4656 yuan, up 49 yuan from the previous day, and that of Brazilian soybeans was 4047 yuan, up 59 yuan [4]. - On August 15, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal decreased to 66,000 tons, with spot trading volume at 15,000 tons and basis trading volume at 51,000 tons. The average trading price dropped to 3086 yuan/ton [4]. - The US Department of Agriculture maintained the 2025/26 US soybean meal supply - demand data unchanged, with production at 59.85 million short tons, up 4.5% year - on - year; domestic consumption at 41.775 million short tons, up 2.8%; exports at 18.7 million short tons, up 4.5%; ending stocks at 475,000 short tons, up 5.6%; and the annual average price down 10 dollars to 280 dollars/short ton [5]. - On August 15, the crushing profit of imported Brazilian soybeans for October - November shipment was - 53 to - 78 yuan/ton, up 31 - 46 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot crushing profit was - 2 to 22 yuan/ton, up 28 - 44 yuan/ton [6]. - As of the week ending August 10, Canadian rapeseed exports increased 864.4% to 254,600 tons, and the commercial inventory was 940,200 tons [6]. - Last week, US soybean futures prices fluctuated upwards, and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans declined slightly. On August 15, the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for October shipment was 300 cents/bushel, down 27 cents/bushel week - on - week; that for November shipment was 310 cents/bushel, down 30 cents/bushel [7]. - NOPA reported that US member units crushed 195.699 million bushels of soybeans in July, up 5.6% from June and 7% from July 2024 [7]. - The central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 154.5 billion yuan [7]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 15.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 84.6%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 42.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 51.5% [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live pig prices in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [10][14][16] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, US soybean futures rose on Friday, and the NOPA report showed an increase in soybean crushing in July. The Pro Farmer crop tour results may break the market's oscillation pattern. The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract is expected to rise, and the spot price is likely to increase, but the inventory pressure of oil mills restricts the basis recovery [17][18]. - For live pigs, the supply may change due to farmers' attitudes, and the demand is expected to improve with the start of school and holiday preparations. It is recommended to wait for a callback to lightly test long positions [19]