煤炭行业周报：政策+高温仍是博弈点，煤价上冲有望延续-20250818

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption remains high, and the price of thermal coal is steadily increasing. Despite the resumption of production and sales by mining companies due to reduced rainfall, the strict checks on overproduction will limit capacity recovery. The high temperatures are contributing to sustained high coal consumption, and the pressure from hydropower on thermal power is decreasing, suggesting a potential for further price increases in the short term [3][10][40] - In the coking coal sector, the sixth round of price increases for coke has been implemented, and while coking coal prices are fluctuating, the demand from downstream steel mills remains resilient. The overall inventory levels in the coal-coke-steel supply chain are not high, indicating a potential for coking coal prices to trend upwards [3][24][40] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed a general upward trend, with the coal sector underperforming compared to the index. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70% to close at 3696.77 points, while the coal sector index fell by 0.87% to 2675.94 points. The trading volume in the market has significantly increased, with average daily transactions exceeding 2 trillion yuan [4][40] Thermal Coal - The price of thermal coal continues to rise, with the utilization rate of coal mines reaching 90.0%, a slight increase of 0.1% from the previous period. The domestic coal price advantage for imported coal is diminishing, leading to a contraction in import volumes. The port inventory of thermal coal has decreased to over 23 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [9][15][40] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is experiencing mixed price movements. The utilization rate of coking coal mines is at 84.8%, a decrease of 0.2%. The demand from steel mills remains strong, with a high operating rate of 83.57% for blast furnaces. The overall inventory levels for coking coal are decreasing, supporting a potential increase in prices [24][29][40] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim has increased, with daily averages rising to 92 ships. Shipping rates for coal have also continued to rise, indicating a robust demand for coal transportation [33][40] Industry News - The report highlights significant developments in the coal industry, including the launch of a data center project by Jinneng Holding Group and the implementation of safety guidelines for coal mining operations in Shanxi province. Additionally, the report notes that the proportion of intelligent mining capacity has surpassed 50%, marking a significant advancement in coal mining safety and efficiency [36][37][40]