海外经济政策跟踪：美联储降息博弈加剧，关注全球央行年会

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy shows marginal decline but remains resilient, with industrial output in July 2025 increasing by 1.54% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 0.22%[7] - Eurozone GDP growth slowed in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.40%, down from 1.50%[30] - Germany's industrial production index fell significantly in June 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of -3.8%[33] Market Performance - Global asset prices showed mixed results, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 3.73% and the S&P 500 increasing by 1.73% during the week of August 8-15, 2025[6] - Commodity prices were varied, with the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index declining by 0.58% and London gold prices dropping by 1.86%[6] Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation data indicates a slow transmission of tariffs, with July's CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 3.1%[39] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have intensified, but future inflation may limit the extent of these cuts, with a forecast of three cuts in 2025 deemed overly optimistic[39] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain current rates, with further cuts potentially delayed until December 2025[40] Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 58.60 in July 2025, down from 61.70[13] - U.S. retail and food sales in July 2025 decreased by 3.92% year-on-year, compared to a previous month of 4.35%[13] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected tariff increases by the Trump administration and geopolitical tensions affecting commodity prices[43]