美国经济研究：保税区库存，美企避税的最后自留地

Group 1: Inventory and Inflation Dynamics - U.S. companies hoarded cheap inventory early in the year, leading to a less pronounced inflation effect than expected, with core CPI rising in June and July but not as significantly as anticipated[1] - The key factor in the inflation dynamics is the U.S. bonded zone policy, which provides temporary tax relief for companies, alleviating cost pressures[1] - Approximately 10% of total U.S. imports are stored in bonded zones, allowing companies to defer tax payments until goods leave these zones[1][18] Group 2: Bonded Zone Impact on Taxation and Imports - Following significant tariff increases in April, the bonded zone system transitioned from a temporary relief mechanism to a major tax avoidance channel for companies[2] - The net inflow of goods into bonded zones showed significant volatility, dropping to -1.6% in March before surging to 2.6% by June, nearing historical highs[2][21] - The proportion of goods imported from China into bonded zones increased from -7.7% in February to 7.3% in June, marking a new high since 2010[2][28] Group 3: Future Inflation Pressures - The relationship between bonded zone net inflows and actual inventory levels is inversely correlated, indicating a strategic shift from immediate imports to bonded storage[3][43] - The anticipated peak of inflationary pressure may occur in Q4, as early inventory is depleted and goods from bonded zones enter the market, coinciding with potential interest rate cuts in September[3][50] - Risks include aggressive policies leading to stagflation or recession, unexpected tariff expansions, and geopolitical tensions causing market volatility[3][50]