Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-08-18 13:59Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][7]. Core Views - The company focuses on comprehensive marine equipment manufacturing, with new trends expected to drive performance growth [5][6]. - The marine equipment market is entering a green renewal cycle, supported by tightening supply and increasing demand for environmentally friendly vessels [34][52]. - The deep-sea engineering business is poised for growth due to policy incentives and technological breakthroughs [55][57]. - The company's military shipbuilding segment benefits from national defense upgrades, creating additional growth opportunities [62]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is 28.96 yuan, with a market capitalization of 40,935.14 million yuan [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 16,146 million yuan (2023), 19,402 million yuan (2024), 20,489 million yuan (2025E), 22,554 million yuan (2026E), and 23,427 million yuan (2027E) [5][6]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 982 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 160.20% [5][6]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 41.70 for 2025, decreasing to 17.53 by 2027 [5][7]. Investment Logic - The company is positioned as a leader in the marine defense and equipment sector, with a strong focus on marine defense, transportation, development, and scientific research equipment [9][14]. - The company’s subsidiary, Huangpu Wenchong, is a global leader in the construction of feeder container ships, which enhances its market position [9][25]. Key Assumptions - Revenue from shipbuilding products is expected to grow by 5.38% in 2025, 10.88% in 2026, and 3.78% in 2027 [66]. - Revenue from marine engineering products is projected to increase by 20.00% in 2025, 12.00% in 2026, and 10.00% in 2027 [66]. Profitability and Shareholder Returns - The company has improved its management efficiency, resulting in a decrease in management expense ratio by 1.23 percentage points from 2018 to 2024 [30][32]. - The dividend payout ratio for 2023 and 2024 is 32.35% and 30.72%, respectively, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [33]. Industry Trends - The shipbuilding industry is characterized by cyclical trends, with significant fluctuations occurring approximately every 20-30 years [34][36]. - The demand for new ships is expected to rise due to the aging global fleet and the need for green technology compliance [40][45].