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近期市场反馈及思考5:“资金分流+反内卷”下的债市主导逻辑变迁
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-18 14:15

Group 1 - The dominant logic in the bond market since May 2025 is major asset allocation rather than "fundamentals + liquidity" [9][10][11] - The low interest rate environment has led to a significant change in residents' asset allocation behavior, with bonds being viewed as "low odds assets" compared to other higher value assets [10][11] - Key indicators to observe the intensity and sustainability of fund diversion include the scale of asset management products, the rate of new resident accounts, margin balances, and non-bank deposits [11][12] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" narrative has altered the macroeconomic discourse, shifting from "weak demand + falling prices" to a focus on improving corporate profitability and potential inflation [17][19] - The bond market's response to "anti-involution" should not be overestimated in the short term, but its long-term impact on price improvement and valuation reassessment is significant [19][20] Group 3 - The bond market should focus on three main expectation differences: external demand, liquidity expectations, and policy expectations, particularly on the demand side [21][22] - The risks in the bond market are gradually being released, with potential pressures from fund diversion and crowded trading structures expected in August to October 2025 [22][24] Group 4 - The expansion of credit bond ETFs presents both opportunities and risks, with potential for increased market volatility and the need for caution regarding component bonds [27][29] - Short-term strategies for credit bonds may involve exploring yield spreads, while caution is advised for long-duration credit bonds and ETFs as they approach profit-taking windows [30][32] Group 5 - The progress of the Southbound Bond Connect expansion offers investment opportunities, particularly in local government bonds and international agency bonds [33][34] - The performance of dim sum bonds is expected to remain strong, with a focus on short-duration sovereign bonds and high-quality local government bonds [34] Group 6 - The approach to low-volatility convertible bonds should shift towards trading rather than allocation, as their trading range narrows [36] - High-volatility convertible bonds should be viewed through a lens of allocation, especially if strong redemption announcements are made [37] Group 7 - The optimal fixed income combination should include short pure bonds as a base, supplemented by mid-to-low-rated convertible bonds and dividend stocks for a balanced portfolio [38]