Changjiang Securities·2025-08-18 14:54Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Positive" for the industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The optical module industry is experiencing a new growth cycle driven by the demand for AI large models, with a projected CAGR of over 50% in the short term and a medium to long-term CAGR of 20-30% [48]. - The demand for optical modules is concentrated among leading manufacturers, with the top three suppliers for 800G modules holding 80% of the market share [49]. - The report highlights the importance of silicon photonics integration as a future trend, which is expected to significantly enhance performance and reduce costs [73]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Optical communication utilizes lasers as information carriers and optical fibers as transmission media, playing a crucial role in telecommunications and data communications markets [11]. - Optical modules are primarily used for signal conversion, including electrical-to-optical and optical-to-electrical transformations [11]. Market Dynamics - The main application of optical modules is in data center networks, particularly for server-to-switch and switch-to-switch connections [16]. - The report estimates that the market for 100G+ optical modules will see significant growth, with expected revenue increases of 157% in 2024 and 54% in 2025 [48]. Key Players and Market Share - The report identifies key players in the optical module market, including companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, NewEase, and Tianfu Communication, which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand [89]. - The market for 400G modules is expected to dominate in 2025, with major clients including ByteDance, Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu [49]. Technological Trends - The report discusses the evolution from traditional discrete optical modules to silicon photonics integration, which is anticipated to overcome current limitations in performance and cost [65][73]. - Co-packaged optics (CPO) and Optical I/O (OIO) are highlighted as future solutions that will replace traditional electrical interconnects, offering lower power consumption and higher bandwidth [78][88]. Financial Projections - The report projects that the capital expenditure (Capex) of major cloud service providers will continue to grow, supporting the demand for optical modules [37]. - Historical data indicates that the Capex of leading cloud companies has a CAGR of 26% over the past decade, reflecting a positive cycle of investment and profitability [37].