资产配置日报：等待反攻的号角-20250818

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high of 3746 points, marking a significant increase of 0.85% on the day[1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets hit 2.81 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity[1] - The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index rose by 2.84% and 2.14%, respectively, reflecting a robust inflow of funds into innovative sectors[1] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced significant pressure, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising by 2.5 basis points and 4.3 basis points to 1.77% and 2.04%, respectively[1] - The bond market faced its most severe day in August, with yields reaching a maximum increase of 5 basis points for 10-year bonds and 6 basis points for 30-year bonds[2] - The net inflow of funds from the central bank was 154.5 billion yuan, aimed at stabilizing liquidity during the tax payment period[3] Influencing Factors - Strong performance in the equity market, along with changes in U.S.-China relations and institutional redemptions, contributed to the upward pressure on bond yields[3][4] - The recent easing of tensions between the U.S. and China, following a temporary suspension of tariffs, has increased risk appetite among investors, negatively impacting the bond market[4] - Public bond funds faced significant redemptions, with the net subscription index dropping to -21.9, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards equities[4] Future Outlook - The bond market's recovery is contingent on external variables, particularly the performance of the equity market and the central bank's monetary policy stance[5] - A potential increase in the central bank's net reverse repos to 300-400 billion yuan could stabilize or slightly reduce bond yields[5] - The importance of identifying signals indicating market direction is emphasized, as the absolute yield levels may become less relevant in the current environment[6]