中泰期货晨会纪要-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro - Economy: China's State Council Premier Li Qiang emphasizes enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, stabilizing market expectations, and boosting consumption and investment. The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. In the domestic real - estate market, the "price - for - volume" phenomenon persists in the second - hand housing market [5][6]. - Macro - Finance: For stock index futures, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips, and pay attention to the safety margin for short - term entry. For treasury bond futures, the curve steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term [8][9]. - Black Metals: The policy for the black metal industry is expected to be milder, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Steel and ore prices will likely remain volatile, while coking coal and coke prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. For ferroalloys, it is advisable to hold previous short positions [11][13][14]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Zinc prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and weak demand. Lithium carbonate prices will be supported by tightened fundamentals in the short term. Industrial silicon prices will fluctuate, and polysilicon prices will have wide - range oscillations [18][19][20]. - Agricultural Products: Cotton prices will be affected by both short - term supply - demand tightness and long - term production increase pressure. Sugar prices are constrained by expected supply increases. Egg prices are likely to be weak in the short term, and apple prices can be operated with a light - position positive spread strategy [21][25][28]. - Energy and Chemicals: Crude oil prices are likely to be weak due to expected supply increases. Fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG prices will follow the trend of crude oil. Plastics, methanol, and other chemical products are expected to have weak oscillations [36][37][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - China's State Council Premier Li Qiang emphasizes enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, stimulating consumption, and promoting investment. Trump meets with Zelensky, and the market awaits the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The second - hand housing market in China shows a "price - for - volume" trend, with prices falling [5][6]. 3.2 Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market has a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a nearly 10 - year high. The strategy is to go long on dips in the long - term and pay attention to the safety margin for short - term entry [8]. Treasury Bond Futures - The curve steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term. The money market is tight during the tax period, and the bond market is under pressure from the stock market. Inflation requires both expectation management and fundamental support [9]. 3.3 Black Metals Overall Situation - Policy is expected to be milder, and supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Seasonal demand is weak, but futures - cash arbitrage is active. Exports may be affected after mid - September [11]. Steel and Ore - Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel mill profits vary. Steel and ore prices will likely maintain a volatile trend, and the spot market trading is generally weak [13]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short term, but there are also downward pressure factors. It is advisable to short on rebounds [14]. Ferroalloys - The double - silicon futures market has seen a partial release of liquidity. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and pay attention to structural trading opportunities [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass should be observed for now. The supply of soda ash is increasing, and the glass market is weak [16]. ，3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Social zinc inventories are increasing, and processing fees are rising. Zinc prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and weak demand [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are tightening, and the price will be supported in the short term, showing a strong - side oscillation [19]. Industrial Silicon - The inventory of industrial silicon is expected to decline due to the resumption of polysilicon production. The price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies [20]. Polysilicon - The policy progress dominates the price fluctuations. The supply - demand contradiction is still relatively loose, and the price will have wide - range oscillations [21]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Cotton - In the short term, cotton prices will be supported by low inventory, but there are concerns about consumption. In the long term, there is pressure from increased production [21][23]. Sugar - The expected increase in supply will suppress sugar prices. Domestically, the import of sugar is increasing, and attention should be paid to the holiday stocking demand [25][26]. Eggs - The egg market has a large supply pressure, and the price of far - month contracts may decline to repair the high valuation. The price may rise seasonally in the short term, but the increase is limited [28][29]. Apples - It is advisable to operate with a light - position positive spread strategy. The price of early - maturing apples varies by quality, and the new - season apple price may be related to the early - maturing and old - season apple prices [30]. Corn - It is recommended to short the 01 contract on rallies and go long on the starch profit. The corn market sentiment is bearish due to supply and demand pressures [31]. Red Dates - It is advisable to wait and see. The spot price of red dates in the Hebei market is stable, and the number of warehouse receipts has changed [32]. Pigs - It is advisable to be cautiously bearish on near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy. The short - term spot price will likely oscillate at the bottom [33][34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply of crude oil is expected to increase, and the price is likely to be weak. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in early September [36]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. The current oil price has no main - line logic, and the supply - demand assessment is bearish [37]. Plastics - The market sentiment for plastics is weakening, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options or have a slightly bearish allocation [37]. Rubber - The rubber market has no obvious short - term contradictions. It is advisable to go long on dips with a stop - loss and be cautious when chasing high prices [39]. Methanol - Methanol prices will likely continue to oscillate weakly due to port inventory accumulation. It is recommended to have a bearish oscillation strategy [40]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is supported, while the futures price may be at a discount to the spot price in the future [41]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow the trend of crude oil. The asphalt market is in the off - season, and the inventory decline is slower than expected [42][43]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain will likely oscillate within a range. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on PX [44]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price of LPG is expected to be weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is likely to decline in the medium - long term [45]. Pulp - The pulp market is affected by inventory accumulation, but there is support from the price of broad - leaf pulp. It is recommended to observe the port inventory and spot trading [47]. Logs - The log market is expected to oscillate. It is advisable to observe and conduct appropriate hedging on rallies [48]. Urea - The urea futures price will likely have wide - range oscillations due to the combination of bearish fundamentals and bullish sentiment [48].