Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Glass futures have good prospects for continued long - positions. The supply is shrinking, and the demand has new growth points, so it's advisable to continue going long on glass futures [3][4][5]. - The short - term A - share market will continue to oscillate upward at a high level. The central bank reaffirms a moderately loose monetary policy, and many places in the property market are accelerating the deployment of urban renewal [8][9]. - Gold is favored by the market as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and currently, it is in a short - term platform with small oscillations [12]. - Iron ore has strong fundamental support and is in a resonance upward trend. It should be treated with a high - level wide - range oscillation mindset recently [16][17]. - For glass, considering the improvement of the macro - environment and effective lower support, a low - buying strategy should be maintained [20][21]. - Methanol in ports should be treated with a bearish and oscillating view as the inventory continues to accumulate [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures - Supply: Policy promotes capacity clearance, and 4 production lines with a daily melting capacity of 2800 tons have stopped kilns, resulting in a shrinking supply [4]. - Demand: Although the demand from new commercial housing completion has declined, there is strong demand in urban renewal, old community renovation, interior decoration, the automotive industry, and the home appliance and kitchenware field, and export demand is also increasing [4]. A - share Market - Market Performance: On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened higher, slightly declined, and then reached new highs in this round of rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a 10 - year high [8][9]. - News: The central bank reaffirms a moderately loose monetary policy, and many places in the property market are accelerating the deployment of urban renewal [8]. - Operation Suggestion: The short - term market will continue to oscillate upward at a high level [8]. Gold - Market Driver: The July non - farm payrolls data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is beneficial to gold [12]. - Market Condition: Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term platform with small oscillations [12]. Iron Ore - Fundamentals: Steel mills' profitability has improved, iron - water production remains high, and the black - industry chain is in a healthy state, presenting a resonance upward trend [16][17]. - Technical Aspect: There was an adjustment today, and it should be treated with a high - level wide - range oscillation mindset recently [16]. Glass - Supply and Demand: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [21]. - Market Driver: The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement and strengthening of the domestic economic recovery expectation [21]. - Technical Aspect: The lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [20]. Methanol - Port Inventory: Last week, the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas in East China increased with a small amount of re - export and ship departure, the stable supply of foreign vessels led to continuous inventory accumulation [24]. - Market Outlook: It should be treated with a bearish and oscillating view [24].
金信期货日刊-20250819
Jin Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-19 01:05