铅周报：供需两弱，铅价维持区间震荡-20250819

1. Report Title and Analyst Information - Report Title: Lead Weekly Report: Weak Supply and Demand, Lead Prices Maintain Range-bound Fluctuations [1] - Analyst: Chen Hansong - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 3. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with lead prices maintaining range-bound fluctuations. The consumption has not improved significantly, and the peak season performance is below expectations. Downstream enterprises only maintain rigid procurement, and the destocking of domestic social inventories is slow. However, the current domestic secondary lead smelters are all in a loss state, and the cost still provides some support for lead prices [4]. - Trading strategies include attempting high selling and low buying within the range for single-side trading, and temporarily observing for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic 4.1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - Supply Side: This week, the supply and demand of lead concentrates remained in a tight balance. The processing fee for domestic lead concentrates remained at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee for imported lead concentrates decreased by 20 US dollars/dry ton to -80 US dollars/dry ton. The scrap battery market's scrap volume changed little, and smelting enterprises purchased on demand. The prices of lead-containing waste materials changed little compared to the previous period [4]. - Smelting End: The average operating rate of SMM's three-province primary lead smelters increased by 0.66% to 68.07% compared to last week. The SMM's four-province weekly operating rate of secondary lead was 40.97%, a decrease of 0.14% from last week. The operating conditions of secondary lead smelting enterprises were relatively stable compared to last week, and the production of some enterprises fluctuated slightly with the arrival of raw materials, resulting in a slight decline in the regional operating rate [4]. - Consumption End: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five-province lead battery enterprises was 67.3%, an increase of 2.05% from last week. The operating rate of lead battery enterprises recovered this week because some enterprises that took high-temperature vacations last week resumed normal production, but some enterprises continued to take vacations, with a maximum vacation duration of 10 days. Therefore, the operating rate has not returned to the level of late July. Next week, as other enterprises' high-temperature vacations end, the weekly operating rate will continue to rise [4]. - Inventory Data: As of August 14, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 71,700 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from August 11 and an increase of 600 tons from August 7. The LME inventory on August 14 decreased by 4,700 tons to 261,100 tons compared to August 8 [4]. - Trading Strategies: Single-side trading can attempt high selling and low buying within the range; temporarily observe for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 4.1.2 - 4.1.5 - The content mainly lists relevant data such as futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventories, but specific data analysis is not provided in the given text [5][8][11][15] 4.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End 4.2.1 - 4.2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Lists data related to global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and domestic lead concentrate total supply and mine operating rates, but specific data analysis is not provided [21][25] 4.2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - Mentions the prices of lead-containing waste materials and waste batteries, as well as the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but specific data analysis is not provided [32] 4.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End 4.3.1 Global Refined Lead - Lists data on global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but specific data analysis is not provided [39] 4.3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Lists data on import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes, but specific data analysis is not provided [46] 4.3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits - Lists data on lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid benefits, and silver benefits, but specific data analysis is not provided [48] 4.3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, as well as the production of electrolytic lead's main delivery brands, but specific data analysis is not provided [56] 4.3.5 - 4.3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Lists data on the cost, profit, operating rate, and production of secondary lead enterprises, but specific data analysis is not provided [59][68] 4.3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Lists data on domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net export, but specific data analysis is not provided [72] 4.4 Chapter 4: Demand End 4.4.1 Lead Batteries - Lists data on the operating rate of lead battery enterprises, dealers' finished product inventory, export and import volumes, and enterprises' finished product inventory, but specific data analysis is not provided [79] 4.4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Lists data on lead alloy prices, import and export of lead alloys and lead plates, but specific data analysis is not provided [82] 4.4.3 - 4.4.4 Automobiles, Motorcycles, Electricity, and Communications - Lists data on automobile production, export, production structure, motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power engineering, but specific data analysis is not provided [85][88]