巴西制糖比继续升高，外盘价格下跌

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Due to Brazil entering the supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter the accumulation phase, leading to a recent decline in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is affected by the international sugar price, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [3]. - In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be volatile due to the influence of domestic and foreign markets. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the short - term. For arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The short - term Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be volatile. Consider short - selling on rallies in the short - term [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - The 24/25 northern hemisphere sugar production increase was less than expected, and the 25/26 northern hemisphere is expected to have a restorative increase. Attention should be paid to the Brazilian sugar - pressing situation [6]. - Brazilian Sugar Production Situation - Sugar Production in Central - Southern Brazil: The sugar production in central - southern Brazil has increased, and the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio has reached a recent high. Although the sugarcane yield per unit is affected by weather and the sugar content is lower than the same period, the sugar - making ratio is high [8][9]. - Cumulative Sugar - Making Ratio in Central - Southern Brazil: The cumulative sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil has reached a new high, and the cumulative sugar production has also increased [11][12]. - Brazilian Sugar Exports and Inventory: Brazilian sugar exports have increased, and the inventory remains at a low level compared to the same period [14]. - Sugar Production in Other Countries - Thailand: The 24/25 sugar production was 10.05 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons), and the exports from January to June 2025 were 3.36 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 0.82 million tons). The 25/26 sugar production is expected to have a slight increase [15]. - India: The 24/25 sugar production was about 26.1 million tons. As of July 15, 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 26.103 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The 25/26 sugar production is expected to have a restorative increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of the ethanol volume on the sugar supply - demand [19][21]. - Domestic Sugar Market Situation - Sugar Production: The 24/25 sugar sales - to - production ratio was higher than the same period, and the inventory remained at a low level. The 25/26 domestic sugar production is in an increasing cycle, and it is expected to have a restorative increase to about 11 million tons (subject to weather changes) [23]. - Import Situation: The import profit has increased, leading to a strong import expectation. The import volume is expected to increase. In June 2025, China imported 424,600 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons. From January to June 2025, the import volume was 1.0508 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 251,200 tons, a decline of 19.29%. As of June in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the import volume was 2.5126 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 649,300 tons, a decline of 20.54%. In July, 469,100 tons of out - of - quota raw sugar actually arrived at the port, and 206,300 tons were forecast to arrive in August [26][34][37]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No detailed summary content provided in the given text, only some data charts are presented, including data on Brazilian sugar production, exports, and domestic sugar production and imports.