鸡蛋周报：需求有所改善，蛋价有所稳定-20250819

1. Report Title and General Information - The report is titled "Egg Weekly Report: Demand Improves Slightly, Egg Prices Stabilize" and is from Galaxy Futures' Bulk Agricultural Products research team, with researcher Liu Qiannan [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Egg prices are currently at a low point in recent years. Although there is a slight improvement in demand, the supply - demand pattern remains "strong supply, weak demand". School - opening preparations may support prices next week [5] - Supply pressure is significant, with an increase in the number of newly - opened laying hens and a high inventory of cold - storage eggs. Demand is generally weak, and egg prices may continue to face downward pressure [18] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas it was 3.2 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin. The price in the main producing areas was generally stable. The terminal demand improved slightly at the beginning of the week, but the price rebound was limited due to weak demand and increased supply. The egg price remained stable and weak in the second half of the week. The price of culled chickens fell this week as farmers' confidence was hit and they increased the slaughter [5] 3.2 Supply Analysis - From August 7 - 14, the national main - producing area's culled chicken slaughter volume was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 506 days, the same as the previous week [10] - In July, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase. The monthly egg - chick hatching volume of sample enterprises in July was 39.98 million, a 2% decrease from the previous month and a 4% year - on - year decrease. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated laying - hen inventory from August to November 2025 is 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [10] 3.3 Cost Analysis - As of August 7, the corn price was around 2395 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3008 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2579 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.83 yuan/jin for eggs. The cost of egg - chicken farming increased slightly this week. As of August 14, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week. On August 8, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was 11.92 yuan/hen, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 3.4 Demand Analysis - The egg price first rose and then fell this week. The sales volume increased at the beginning of the week but decreased later as the price reached a peak and the hot weather made storage difficult. As of August 14, the sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [16] - Due to high humidity, farmers sold eggs promptly, and the production - link inventory decreased. Traders maintained a fast - in, fast - out strategy, and the circulation - link inventory decreased significantly. As of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link it was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous week [16] - The vegetable price index rebounded slightly, and the pork price index changed little. On August 14, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 123.94, and on August 13, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 15.58 yuan/kg [16] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Consider short - selling at high prices as the supply pressure is significant, demand is weak, and the cold - storage eggs are being released [18] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [18] - Options: Sell put options [17] 3.6 Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides historical data charts on laying - hen inventory, culled - chicken slaughter, chick - hatching volume, cold - storage eggs, egg - chicken farming conditions, and price spreads and basis [22][23][24]